2026-01-19 19:34:46

There is a good opportunity in the Polymarket prediction market—I made a profit using a range coverage strategy on the "Number of Elon Musk Tweets Prediction" market.

In simple terms, instead of betting on a single outcome, I placed multiple orders to cover a price range. This time, I placed 7 orders, each at the $15 price point.

What are the benefits of this approach? No matter which direction the market ultimately moves, as long as the fluctuations stay within your coverage range, you have a chance to profit. This operation resulted in a return of between 30% and 100%.

Prediction markets indeed offer some good opportunities for retail investors. The key is to find the right target and use the right strategy—simply betting on a single point carries too much risk, while diversified coverage is actually more reliable.

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BlockchainArchaeologist

· 12h ago

Haha, this range coverage move is indeed clever, but it depends on how the market liquidity is, otherwise it's easy to get caught. Things like Polymarket are just gambling on human nature. Elon’s tweet predictions are way too random. 30-100%? Just listen to it. The risk premium has definitely been priced in already. Diversified coverage sounds stable, but when the market hits face-to-face, it still breaks defenses... I've seen too many people get wrecked. This logic has been everywhere in the options market for a long time. Are prediction markets just starting to play now? Honestly, it’s just leveraging to gamble on volatility, and I’m quite happy fooling myself.

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TokenStorm

· 12h ago

Looks good, but all 7 orders are at the same price level. I have to question the risk factor—are they really diversified? The range coverage sounds stable, but I'm worried that once the price breaks the range, it will explode directly. Have you backtested historical data or are you just relying on luck? The 30-100% range is too wide, indicating that some trades are highly profitable while others are heavily loss-making. This is a perfect example of gambler's mentality, haha. Elon’s tweet volume itself is a black swan nest. Under your strategy, if an unexpected situation occurs next time, it could break the system. But I have to say, it's definitely smarter than just going head-to-head on single points. I believe in retail opportunities, but don’t mistake luck for skill. Next time, you should also consider on-chain data.

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ser_we_are_early

· 13h ago

Honestly, I didn't think of this strategy before. The coverage approach is definitely more reliable than all-in on a single point. Wait, is this real trading on Polymarket or just a simulation? All 7 orders entered at 15, the luck is really unmatched. But to be fair, prediction markets still have a bit of a high barrier; you need to have a sense of market trends. I just like this kind of strategy that doesn't gamble on a single outcome. Spreading the risk is definitely more appealing.

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FloorPriceWatcher

· 13h ago

Haha, this set of tactics is indeed brilliant. Covering a range with 7 trades is much more stable. This range strategy is much more comfortable than single-point gambling, and risks can also be controlled. Playing prediction markets requires finding this kind of non-hedging perspective to survive longer. A profit margin of 30 to 100 is acceptable; consistently making profits without crashing is the key. Elon’s tweet volume is inherently hard to predict, using this dispersal method is really smart. But to be honest, many people are still blindly betting on one side, no wonder they lose. Retail investors should learn to leverage strategies to overtake in curves; those stubbornly fighting single points are all leeks.

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PessimisticOracle

· 13h ago

This approach sounds pretty good, but can Elon really be predicted based on the number of tweets he posts? I feel like when he's in the mood, he could easily send out 200 tweets in a day at any time, haha.

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