Many people haven't noticed this pattern: as long as gold keeps hitting new all-time highs, Bitcoin usually follows within three months to break its own record high. This is not a coincidence; there is logic behind it.

Recently, Bitcoin's decline is essentially caused by market uncertainty and emotional fluctuations. Bitcoin reacts quickly, while the US stock market reacts more slowly. The key question is: will the market manipulators take this opportunity to attract funds into US stocks? My judgment is that it’s highly likely. So there's nothing to fear about the current dip.

Many analysts in the market blame the 9.19 decline on Trump's tariffs and Europe's retaliations, but I have a different view. I believe the real reason is that long positions are piled too thick, which is actually a shakeout before the rally. A sudden sell-off at 6 a.m., with such low trading volume, is indeed a bit suspicious. Overall, the trend is still upward, but that doesn't mean there won't be a quick dip to wipe out some longs.

Here's another point most people overlook: exchanges are actually the biggest whales in Bitcoin. If you pay close attention, you'll notice that gold and US stocks have been rising sharply, but there hasn't been a proper correction. If gold and US stocks can’t go higher next, what’s the most realistic way for the people behind the crypto world to attract funds from these two markets? It’s by manipulating the market. The best timing is during a bull market sideways phase, when market enthusiasm is slack, and then adding some positive news to push prices higher in one go.

Trading is not just about watching K-lines and news; sometimes, looking at the opposite perspective is more reliable. I’ll give you two useful references: first, the Fear & Greed Index and liquidation data. When the Fear & Greed Index is very low, approaching 20, it’s time to buy; when it’s high, approaching 80, it’s time to sell. Second, observe where the liquidation amounts flow—whichever side has larger liquidation volume is more likely to see the price move in that direction. For example, if Bitcoin drops below 90,000 and liquidates $800 million in shorts, then rises to 95,000 and liquidates $2 billion in longs, it’s highly probable that the market is heading to wipe out that $2 billion. But maybe it will first trigger a quick drop to wipe out the $800 million shorts, then go for the $2 billion longs—both long and short traps are possible.

Playing in the crypto space, you must understand the underlying logic. If exchanges are truly the biggest whales in Bitcoin, then they have plenty of USDT to manipulate the market, continuously attracting funds from gold and stocks into the crypto world.

From a broader perspective: the real competitors of gold and stocks are actually the exchanges in the crypto space. Do you think a leading exchange-led crypto trading team can win?

Finally, a word of advice: your biggest opponent in the futures market is not other retail traders, but the exchange itself.