#比特币2026年行情展望 $DUSK $ARPA $SCRT

Powell's "policy mistake" confirmed five years later! The long-sealed Federal Reserve meeting records from 2020 have finally been exposed, thoroughly revealing the key decision that went against the consensus at the time—the decision that directly planted the inflation bomb.

In the September 2020 meeting, Powell aggressively pushed for an ultra-strong interest rate guidance, anchoring rates close to zero, and clearly stated that only when full employment is achieved and inflation reaches 2% and sustains overshoot would they consider raising rates. Even with several colleagues publicly opposing, he insisted on finalizing the decision. At that time, the Fed had just adjusted its policy framework, abandoning the old routine of preemptive rate hikes to prevent inflation. Powell was solely focused on maintaining policy credibility, even if it meant making quick decisions.

And the result? This commitment became a straitjacket for the Fed. In September, inflation was only 1.3%, and the Fed still predicted it would reach the 2% target only by 2023. But inflation spiraled out of control the following year—peaking at 7.2% in mid-2022. It was obvious to everyone: the Fed was locked into its guidance, dragging its feet until March 2022 before finally starting to raise rates. The most critical window for controlling inflation was simply missed.

Powell publicly admitted his mistake as early as November 2022, stating he would never make similar interest rate commitments again. This five-year-old sealed record also revealed internal disputes: two Federal Reserve chairs opposed the decision on the spot, and many officials with and without voting rights were worried. Ultimately, the decision was forced through, highlighting the extreme controversy surrounding it at the time.

Every macro policy move causes the crypto market to tremble. The inflation aftermath caused by Powell’s mistake still influences market expectations of the Fed’s future policy path. The logic behind those key decisions during the pandemic has finally come to light through these archives.

What does this mean? The future pace of Fed rate cuts may face more constraints. Given the current complex macro environment, should crypto assets prioritize safe-haven strategies or take advantage of lows to accumulate? This is a question every trader should carefully consider.