#数字资产市场动态 🔍 The Federal Reserve's Independence at a Critical Juncture: Judicial Power Boundary Test

The Supreme Court is about to hear the case of Trump v. Federal Reserve Board, which centers on the fundamental logic of monetary policy formulation—whether the President has the authority to directly intervene in the Fed's personnel decisions. This is not merely a legal procedural issue but also touches on the fundamental expectations of the global financial system regarding the credibility of the US dollar.

What could happen if the White House wins the lawsuit? The most immediate consequence would be the breaking of the firewall that maintains the Fed's independence. Jerome Powell and future Fed boards could face risks of being replaced at any time due to political factors, and the process of monetary policy making might become a tool for short-term political interests rather than a professional decision based on economic fundamentals. The impact on market expectations is profound—when policy coherence and independence cannot be guaranteed, the fundamental logic of capital pricing will undergo a radical adjustment.

Institutions like UBS have issued warnings: once the political insulation of the Fed is compromised, market confidence in the US dollar as the global reserve currency will face serious tests. US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar exchange rate could experience significant volatility, and reallocation of risk assets will become inevitable.

Key timeline to watch: Powell's term extends until 2028, but the Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the Fed, indicating that two fronts are advancing simultaneously. The Supreme Court previously weakened some protections of institutional independence last year but also indicated that the structure of the Fed has unique characteristics. How tomorrow’s ruling will balance these factors is now a period of observation for the market.

The implications for asset allocation are relatively clear: policy uncertainty in 2026-2027 will be higher than the historical average. The systemic risks faced by traditional financial assets are increasing, which is precisely the time when the safe-haven attributes of decentralized assets and the crypto market become prominent. Market participants are adjusting their positions in preparation for potential policy volatility.

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(This content is for market observation only; investment should be cautious.)