Unveiling the synchronized surge of gold and silver: January 20 latest market analysis and expert predictions

01 Latest Market Developments

In early 2026, the precious metals market experienced a booming rally. As of January 20, spot silver prices temporarily hit a record high of $95 per ounce during Asian trading hours.

Although a technical correction brought it down to $92.57, it quickly rebounded, trading around $94.30 for the day. During the European session, silver prices further climbed, reaching a high of $95.49 before settling around $95.16.

Meanwhile, the gold market also performed strongly. Spot gold is currently around $4,740 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 8% since 2026.

The gold-silver ratio (the ratio of gold price to silver price) recently broke below the key level of 50, indicating that silver’s valuation relative to gold has reached its highest level in nearly 13 years. This shift signals a profound internal adjustment within the precious metals market.

02 In-Depth Analysis of Driving Factors

The current rise in precious metals is driven by multiple forces, not a single factor.

Geopolitical risks are the primary catalyst. U.S. President Trump recently threatened to impose a 10% import tariff on eight European countries including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany. This decision directly heightened risk aversion in global markets.

French President Macron called for the EU to activate a “trade nuclear weapon” in response, sharply increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

In addition to trade tensions, early 2026 saw a general escalation of global geopolitical risks. Ongoing unrest in Iran, unresolved conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and Trump publicly discussing “buying Greenland” all contributed to a “trust collapse chain reaction,” undermining the credibility of the dollar as the core of the world order.

Market expectations for monetary policy also support precious metals. The market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the January policy meeting. The probability of a rate cut in January has plummeted from 11.6% to just 4.8%.

This “delayed but not entirely dismissed rate cut expectation” creates an ideal environment for gold investment. Historically, the mid-to-late stages of Fed rate cut cycles tend to be the strongest periods for gold performance.

03 Unique Drivers in the Silver Market

Compared to gold, silver has experienced a more significant rally, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in 2026 so far, far surpassing gold’s 8% gain. This divergence mainly stems from silver’s unique supply-demand structure.

The global silver market has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years. According to the World Silver Survey, global silver demand in 2025 is expected to reach 1.12 billion ounces, while supply will be only 1.01 billion ounces, creating a gap of 110 million ounces.

Supply-side constraints are long-term. In 2025, global mined silver production is projected at only 820 million ounces, a slight increase of 1.8% year-over-year. Major producing countries like Mexico and Peru face declining ore grades, and recycling growth cannot fully offset the deficit.

Demand remains robust. The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2030, solar photovoltaic and electric vehicle industries alone will consume half of the world’s silver production.

Silver’s strategic importance is also increasing. Besides the U.S. key mineral list, countries like India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are also including silver in their official reserves or strategic asset lists. These factors collectively drive historic highs in silver prices.

04 Institutional Forecasts and Market Outlook

In response to the strong performance of precious metals, major institutions are adjusting their forecasts and generally optimistic about the future.

Mainstream Wall Street institutions have issued positive gold price forecasts. Jefferies Group predicts gold will reach $6,600 per ounce, up 52.04% from the end of 2025; Yardeni Group forecasts $6,000, up 38.21%.

More institutions forecast in the $4,500 to $5,000 range: UBS predicts $5,400, JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab both forecast $5,055, Bank of America and ANZ Bank forecast $5,000.

For silver, the market generally believes there is still room for upside. Several analysts state that the core logic of this precious metals bull market remains valid, with medium-term upside potential. Some experts expect silver prices to challenge historical highs, targeting above $100 per ounce.

Long-term forecasts are more aggressive. Juerg Kiener predicts gold could reach $8,000 by 2028; Ed Yardeni mentioned in a December 2025 report that gold could hit $10,000 by 2030.

05 Investor Insights and Risk Warnings

While the current precious metals market is full of opportunities, risks are also present. Investors should exercise caution when participating.

The market is currently in a tug-of-war between “long-term optimism” and “short-term overbought conditions.” Any marginal easing of geopolitical tensions, exchange margin hikes, or unexpected strengthening of the dollar index could trigger rapid profit-taking and technical corrections.

Historical lessons are worth noting. After gold reached $850 per ounce in 1980, the market widely expected it to break $1,000, but prices then plummeted over 60%, falling to $350 in 1985.

Factors triggering the price collapse included significant increases in margin requirements by commodity exchanges to curb speculation and sharp rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.

From a broader asset allocation perspective, the relationship between precious metals and cryptocurrencies is also worth attention.

A key phenomenon in 2025 was: gold surged because sovereign nations de-dollarized, with central banks accumulating gold regardless of price; meanwhile, Bitcoin performed modestly because it relies directly on dollar liquidity. This reflects the differentiated performance of various asset classes amid market structural changes.

For investors wishing to participate in the precious metals market, analysts recommend monitoring key indicators such as: whether silver inventories continue to decline, Federal Reserve policy directions, changes in exchange risk control measures, and evolving geopolitical situations.

Future Outlook

Silver has broken through $95, with analysts setting the next psychological threshold at $100. Meanwhile, gold is also approaching the $5,000 mark.

Market focus is on the Federal Reserve’s policy independence. Fed Chair Powell will participate in a televised oral argument before the U.S. Supreme Court regarding Fed Governor Cook on January 21, marking an unusual public statement from the central bank leader.

Although COMEX silver futures inventories remain relatively high, a large portion of silver is held long-term, with liquidity available for futures delivery being tight. This structural tightness could further amplify price volatility and create more trading opportunities.