Bitcoin's new forecast warning: Short-term may face 25% correction, how should traders respond?

Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery since early 2026, reaching a recent high of $97,538 on January 15.

However, the good times didn’t last long. In response to the Trump administration’s new tariff threats against European allies, Bitcoin prices declined. According to the latest data from Gate, BTC has fallen 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $91,000.

01 Current Market Situation

Bitcoin performed strongly in early 2025, reaching a high of $102,000 before experiencing significant volatility. During January, prices fluctuated between $98,000 and $104,000, and by April, it had dropped to a low of $76,000.

The market saw a slow rebound, with prices climbing to a historic high near $126,000 in October, only to encounter a flash crash that erased double-digit gains. By the end of 2025, Bitcoin traded in the range of $86,000 to $94,000.

After entering 2026, Bitcoin showed signs of recovery. Following a peak of $97,538 on January 15, it began to retreat due to political factors, currently fluctuating around $91,000.

02 Bull-Bear Battle Analysis

Market opinions are divided. Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Digital Bank, is optimistic about 2026, expecting Bitcoin to potentially achieve a 55% annual increase.

Notably, Kendrick has halved his long-term target from $300,000 to $150,000 per BTC. He believes Bitcoin remains a strong buy, but the era of digital asset companies purchasing Bitcoin may be over.

Conversely, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, warns that if risk assets overall pull back, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000.

This polarized forecast reflects current market uncertainty and highlights the decision-making dilemma faced by investors.

Technical analysis from Changelly indicates that the current market sentiment for Bitcoin is “bullish 40%”, with a Fear & Greed Index of 44, in the “fear” zone. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has closed higher on 15 trading days, with a volatility of 3.11%.

03 Short-term Price Trends and Predictions

Based on Changelly’s data, Bitcoin’s short-term price outlook is cautiously optimistic. The forecast for January 20 is $93,402.57, a slight increase of 0.43% from current levels.

The next few days are expected to see continued moderate gains, with a potential price of $93,941 by January 22, up 1.01%. If the trend persists, the price could break above $96,600 by early February, approaching the $100,000 mark by mid-February.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart shows a bullish trend, with the 50-day moving average rising, indicating short-term strength.

However, the daily chart shows bearish signals, with the 50-day moving average below the current price and trending downward, which could pressure future prices. The weekly chart, on the other hand, indicates a positive trend, with the 50-day moving average above the price and rising, potentially forming resistance.

04 Key Factors Influencing 2026

The Bitcoin market in 2026 faces multiple influencing factors. Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, points out that improvements in global economic activity and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) could support Bitcoin.

The end of global quantitative tightening and normalization of U.S. Treasury cash levels help ease market liquidity pressures. Additionally, easing concerns over the “four-year cycle” of significant downturns in the crypto market may improve investor sentiment.

On the regulatory front, if the Clarity Act passes, it will clearly distinguish which digital assets are securities and which are commodities, potentially reducing long-term regulatory uncertainty for crypto companies and investors.

On the geopolitical front, risks remain. The tariff threats from the Trump administration have already caused market volatility. Increased political uncertainty in the U.S. could further exacerbate market swings in the short term.

05 Structural Changes in the Market

The cryptocurrency market in 2026 is undergoing structural shifts. Nina Bambysheva, Analyst at Forbes, notes that one of the most significant structural changes in the crypto industry is the increasing institutionalization.

Since the U.S. approved a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, crypto ETFs and ETPs have expanded rapidly, with global assets under management exceeding $200 billion.

Bitcoin ETFs are no longer just tools for retail investors but are gradually being incorporated into institutional portfolios, retirement accounts, and delegated funds. This shift means Bitcoin prices will be more influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and traditional financial markets.

Another key trend is the accelerated development of asset tokenization. Although tokenized stocks, bonds, and real estate currently account for a small fraction of the global market, regulatory attitudes have shifted substantially.

The approval of tokenized services by U.S. securities depositories is seen as a symbolic step, indicating that traditional financial infrastructure is beginning to integrate with blockchain technology.

06 Risk Warnings and Strategies

Warnings about potential risks from analysts should not be ignored. Kendrick specifically points out that the purchase of Bitcoin by digital asset companies may have already ended, as their valuations no longer support further Bitcoin holdings.

He expects a period of consolidation rather than a full-scale sell-off, but such buying activity is unlikely to provide further support for Bitcoin. This means Bitcoin has lost an important source of buying pressure, which could weigh on prices.

Geopolitical risks are also significant. The tariff threats from the Trump administration have already caused a 2.1% decline in Bitcoin prices, and increased U.S. political uncertainty could further heighten market volatility.

From a broader macroeconomic perspective, if risk assets overall experience a correction, Bitcoin could also decline, testing the $50,000 level.

Copper’s research offers an interesting insight: in the spot ETF era, Bitcoin has formed a “cost basis cycle.” Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin often retraces to the ETF investors’ cost basis before rebounding sharply.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is close to $84,000, its cost basis, suggesting that within the next 180 days, Bitcoin could challenge $140,000, with a potential target range of $138,000 to $148,000.

07 Investor Strategies

In the face of market uncertainty, trading on a leading global crypto exchange like Gate requires a cautious approach. With over 48 million users, Gate offers more than 4,300 cryptocurrencies for trading.

Proper asset allocation is key to managing market volatility. Investors may consider diversifying their funds across mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as platform tokens such as GT.

Monitoring regulatory developments is equally important. If the Clarity Act passes, it will reduce regulatory uncertainty. Also, be aware that the recent end of digital asset company purchases may impact the market.

Investors can take advantage of Gate’s extensive educational resources. Gate Learn offers blockchain knowledge education, while Gate Research provides in-depth industry trend analysis.

Additionally, Gate Live, the platform’s live streaming service, features top global industry analysts, offering professional market trend analysis, trading strategies, and investment opportunities.

In volatile markets, risk management is crucial. Set appropriate stop-loss points, avoid excessive leverage, and stay calm during sharp market swings.

Bitcoin as an asset class is gradually maturing, but short-term volatility will persist. Through platforms like Gate, investors can access a wide range of digital assets and blockchain-related services, leveraging tools and resources to make more informed investment decisions.

Future Outlook

The future of Bitcoin remains uncertain. Predictions indicate potential short-term pullbacks, but long-term institutional inflows and regulatory improvements could support the market.

As demonstrated by the drop from the $97,538 high on January 15 to the current around $91,000, crypto market volatility is an ongoing reality investors must face. On a platform like Gate, with over 4,300 cryptocurrencies available for trading, investors have many opportunities but also need to be aware of market risks.

Geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes will continue to influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. For investors seeking long-term success in this space, staying informed, investing cautiously, and utilizing Gate’s comprehensive tools and resources will be key to navigating market cycles.