## The US labor market shows clear signs of weakening in November

November statistics confirm that the US labor market is entering a downturn phase. The number of available job positions has significantly decreased, while the number of unemployed individuals has surpassed the number of open positions.

### Dynamics of employment changes

The latest data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) show a deterioration in conditions. American employers reported 7.1 million available positions in November – well below 7.4 million from the previous month and the lowest since September 2024. This result also disappointed economists’ forecasts, who expected 7.6 million job openings.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed persons fell to 0.9 – the first such result since 2021. This marks a breakthrough: for the first time in over three years, there are fewer than one available job for each unemployed person. November was the first month in a four-year perspective when the number of job seekers significantly exceeded the available employment opportunities.

### What is behind the decline in job openings?

The slowdown in employment growth results from several interconnected factors. Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, more stringent implementation of immigration policies, and accelerating automation of business processes through artificial intelligence have forced employers to exercise caution. Companies are halting personnel expansion and waiting for clarification on the macroeconomic situation.

However, experts note that the decline in job openings does not mean mass layoffs. As an analyst from CIBC commented: "The labor market is slowing down, but employers remain reluctant to reduce employment. The dynamics are weak, but we are not witnessing a collapse."

### Implications for monetary policy

The report comes at a crucial moment when the Federal Reserve is preparing for further decisions regarding interest rates. The Fed has already cut rates in the last three cycles, aiming to support the labor market and prevent further deterioration of economic conditions. Next employment data will be carefully analyzed by central bank policymakers.

The trend indicates a gradual cooling of the labor market, which is an important reference point for investors monitoring macroeconomic cycles.