Bitcoin approaches a critical moment: will the bottom in 2026 be at $37,500?

Current Market Situation for Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices remain around the level of $91,170, although over the past 24 hours we have observed a decline of 1.96%. Many indicators suggest that the asset is still fighting to regain the symbolic $100,000 mark, which we last saw in October 2025. This market nervousness is leading analysts to increasingly pessimistic scenarios regarding the near future.

Bitcoin Cycle History and Future Declines

Known cryptocurrency market participant Ali Martinez recently suggested that the current pattern on Bitcoin’s quarterly charts shows a surprising similarity to previous bear phases. Comparing data from 2018 and 2022, the analyst indicates that bear markets typically involve a retracement of 70 to 84 percent from the peaks reached in those cycles.

According to this observation, if history truly repeats itself, Bitcoin could be heading toward significantly lower levels than those currently observed.

Specific Forecast: $37,500 in Q4 2026

Martinez did not limit himself to general observations – he proposed a specific scenario for the next 288 days. His analysis indicates that Bitcoin could potentially test the level of around $37,500 in the last quarter of 2026.

The predicted 70-percent decline from the cycle’s ultimate peak could place a potential turning point precisely in this price zone. This would mean that, three years after its peak, the most popular cryptocurrency could once again fall to levels seen in 2023.

Bear Markets as Accumulation Phases, Not Endings

However, one important caveat remains: pessimistic forecasts for 2026 do not necessarily mean the end for Bitcoin. In fact, historical Bitcoin market lows have always been entry points for long-term investors.

Previous deep declines consistently preceded subsequent multi-year bull markets. In the case of Bitcoin, each macro bottom proved to be the beginning of an accumulation phase, which ultimately led to significantly higher profits than those observed in previous eras. The scenario of $37,500 in 2026 could therefore present an excellent opportunity for patient market participants.