USD/CHF Breaks Above Technical Resistance: What the Economic Data Tells Us

Technical Momentum Builds as Currency Pair Tests Critical Levels

The USD/CHF exchange rate is displaying strengthening uptrend potential as traders focus on a crucial technical crossover. Trading near 0.7991—its highest point since mid-December—the pair is currently probing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned around 0.7984. This technical juncture comes amid a backdrop of divergent economic signals from both the United States and Switzerland.

Economic Backdrop Supporting the USD

Recent labor market data from the US Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims rose modestly to 208,000 for the week ending January 3, coming in slightly better than the forecast of 210,000 but higher than the previous week’s 200,000. More significantly, US trade figures demonstrated substantial improvement. The combined goods and services trade deficit contracted sharply to $29.4 billion in October—dramatically lower than both the projected $58.9 billion and September’s revised $48.1 billion gap. This improvement in the trade balance has continued to underpin Dollar strength in foreign exchange markets.

Swiss Inflation Stability Shapes SNB Expectations

Switzerland’s inflation picture remained largely unchanged in recent months. Official data from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office showed the Consumer Price Index recorded zero change in December following a 0.2% decline in November. When measured year-over-year, inflation ticked up to 0.1%, matching consensus estimates. This stability appears to have reinforced market expectations that the Swiss National Bank will hold its policy rate steady for the foreseeable future, reducing speculation about a potential shift toward negative rates.

Technical Setup Favors Further Upside

From a charting perspective, USD/CHF is presenting an increasingly constructive picture. The Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe has recovered above the 50 midpoint, indicating recovering momentum after briefly approaching oversold terrain. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reinforces this narrative, with the MACD line positioned above the Signal line and a widening positive histogram near zero—a classical sign of strengthening bullish pressure.

However, the broader context matters. The currency pair remains effectively trapped within a consolidation pattern established since August 2025, hovering near its lowest levels since 2011. This structural range has contained price action for months.

Critical Technical Targets and Support Levels

Resistance Prospects: Breaking decisively above the 100-day SMA around 0.7984 would signal renewed conviction among USD buyers. Such a move could establish momentum toward the 200-day SMA positioned near 0.8070, which coincides with the upper boundary of the prevailing consolidation zone.

Support Zone: Should USD/CHF fail to overcome the 100-day SMA, the recent rebound could falter, opening the door to renewed selling pressure. The most significant support level lies near 0.7850 at the lower edge of the consolidation range.

The pair’s ability to clear the 100-day SMA remains the key technical event to monitor in the sessions ahead.