US Stock Market Overview: Tech rally under geopolitical pressure; positive US assessments of the Fed (December 17, 2025)

I. Macroeconomic Perspective – Conditions for Evaluation in America through Monetary Policy

The latest labor market data show mixed signals. In November, 64,000 new non-farm jobs were added – better than the estimates of (50,000), but October’s data were again revised downward to a loss of 105,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, indicating a cooling in the labor market.

Retail sales remained stagnant. In October, there was zero growth, although core sales (excluding autos and fuel) increased by 0.8% – the biggest jump since June. This contrast suggests consumers are selective, but the holiday shopping rush maintains demand.

The Federal Reserve’s independence remains crucial for assessing economic prospects in America. Hassett reiterated that Fed decisions must be based on data and FOMC consensus, not political pressure. Trump plans to speak with board member Waller – a politician who supported rate cuts this year and opposed maintaining them in July. Such signals ease concerns about Fed’s favorability next year.

II. Commodities and Energy – Divergences as an Indicator of Sentiment

Commodity markets set the boundaries of optimism. Copper hit a record high thanks to storage in the USA and huge demand from AI data centers – Goldman Sachs warns of speculative bubble risks.

Oil, on the other hand, underperforms. WTI price fell below $55, reaching the lowest since early 2021, driven by expectations of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and global oversupply. Energy stocks (ExxonMobil -2.1%, Chevron -2.3%, Occidental Petroleum -3.5%) are declining. The shale sector is under pressure, signaling that geopolitics and supply outweigh stories of strong demand.

III. Stock Market – Technology Leads the Rebound Despite Turbulence

Major indices showed a mixed picture:

• Dow Jones: -0.62% to 48,114.26 points, pressured by energy stocks
• S&P 500: -0.24% to 6,800.26 points, volatile throughout the day
• Nasdaq: +0.23% to 23,111.46 points, a tech sector rebound reversed initial weakness

The tech sector dominates the scene. Tesla +3.07% (a thirty percent increase exceeded 9% and reached a historic high), fueling optimism around Robotaxi – Morgan Stanley forecasts 1,000 vehicles deployment in 2026. The battery factory in Berlin (8 GWh/year, a €1 billion investment from 2027), will lower costs and strengthen competitiveness.

Oracle +2.02% benefits from strong cloud demand. Meta +1.49% supports the number of social media users. Nvidia +0.5% maintains its position amid persistent AI chip shortages. Apple +0.18% leverages ideas to expand its portfolio – at least 7 iPhone models by fall 2027, the first foldable in 2026, and a commemorative model for the 20th anniversary.

IV. Thematic Sectors – Where Investors Are Placing Their Bets

Digital assets accelerate: Cryptocurrency-related stocks gained over 3%. MicroStrategy +3.5%, Robinhood +3.2%. Bitcoin stabilization and Visa launching USDC services boost mainstream interest in digital assets.

Chinese stocks in the US under pressure: Baidu +1.2%, Nio +0.8%, but Luckin Coffee -7.1%. The premium coffee segment brought rumors of potential acquisitions of Blue Bottle and %Arabica% – diversification of offerings but with costs of integration.

V. Reading Between the Lines – What Do These Movements Mean

Assessments in America regarding the Fed remain positive, as the institution’s independence is unwavering. However, divergences between the energy and technology sectors reveal a deep shift in investment themes. Falling oil signals reduced fears of energy shortages and increased confidence in global peace. Simultaneously, Tesla, Apple, and cloud investments are bets on the future of AI and digital transformation.

The labor market sends mixed signals – unemployment is rising, but the consumer base remains vibrant. This creates room for a “soft landing” scenario, which the Fed may tolerate with monetary easing in 2026.

VI. Observations for Investors

In the short term, tech stocks may benefit from capital rotation from the energy sector. Tesla and Apple remain focal points, but caution regarding Robotaxi (regulatory risk) and foldable screens (technical challenges) is justified.

The Fed’s path and assessments of monetary policy in America remain the most important factors for sentiment. If Waller or the next Fed chair signals rate cuts in 2026, the cycle of stocks will be supported. Otherwise, volatility will return.

Key Event Announcements:

• New York Fed President Williams’ speech (22:05): currency outlooks
• Micron Technology earnings (after market close): semiconductor demand indicator
• Bank of Canada Governor’s speech (01:45): monetary policy
• Medline IPO: testing market sentiment on IPOs

Disclaimer: Content gathered by an analytical system, verified by an expert. Does not constitute investment advice.