Trade dynamics are shifting in ways that could matter for asset markets. Recent statements suggest the U.S. trade deficit with the EU could surpass its deficit with China in 2025—a notable reversal from the conventional narrative.

Why does this matter? Trade imbalances influence currency valuations, inflation expectations, and central bank policy responses. If the EU deficit becomes the larger issue, it could reshape policy priorities and affect dollar strength, which historically correlates with crypto market movements.

The geopolitical angle is worth considering too. Trade tensions with major partners create policy uncertainty, and markets typically seek alternative stores of value during such periods. Whether institutional capital rotates toward digital assets or traditional havens depends on how these deficits are addressed.

Keep an eye on how these numbers develop. Macro surprises often trigger volatility across all asset classes.