Bitcoin in 2025: Challenges Before a Possible Breakout in 2026

Despite expectations of strong momentum, Bitcoin shows a bleak picture against the backdrop of weakened investment appetite and liquidity shortages in the markets. The Nasdaq 100 index significantly outperformed cryptocurrencies in its results, creating a gap that experts suggest may indicate a fair undervaluation of the asset. Monetary expansion and cyclical changes in liquidity conditions will shape a new reality for markets in 2026.

Why is Bitcoin lagging behind traditional assets?

The current decline in Bitcoin is linked to a complex set of factors. Limited liquidity, reinforced by tighter financing conditions, keeps speculative assets from growing. At the same time, risk appetite among investors has significantly weakened, especially amid volatility in interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $89,610, which is substantially lower than the peak of over $126,000 recorded earlier this year. Technical factors, including resistance levels on charts and bearish signals, have also prevented the price from further rise. In contrast to cryptocurrencies, gold has demonstrated resilience, increasing by more than 70% and reaching $4,492 per ounce.

David Schassler and the VanEck analytical teams point out a paradox: Bitcoin’s lag of approximately 50% behind the Nasdaq 100 since the beginning of the year is not seen as a signal to panic but as an opportunity for re-evaluating multi-fold assessments between asset classes.

Macroeconomic dynamics as a catalyst for 2026

A central theme in VanEck’s forecasts is understanding liquidity cycles and their impact on scarce assets. When currency devaluation accelerates and liquidity returns to the system, Bitcoin historically demonstrates explosive momentum. This scenario is considered likely throughout 2026.

VanEck specialists note that Bitcoin, like gold, acts as a hedge against financial stress and monetary expansion. Governments, according to analysts, will increasingly rely on monetary expansion to finance their obligations. This process traditionally favors assets positioned as stores of value.

Signals from network activity

An interesting observation is Bitcoin’s behavior in response to changes in hash mining activity. Data shows that when hash rate drops sharply — a scenario that occurs during miner stress periods — Bitcoin demonstrates positive dynamics in 65% of cases over the following 90 days. This may indicate that the current stress period in the ecosystem could be viewed as a potential bottom for a new wave.

Broader macroeconomic trends

The VanEck investment management team highlights a quiet bull market in natural resources and assets related to artificial intelligence, energy transitions, and reindustrialization. These “old world assets” are seen as the foundation for a new global economy.

From the fixed income side, the outlook remains cautious. Bond yields in 2026 will depend on episodic volatility rather than stable trends. The US Federal Reserve faces a political dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and maintaining a steady inflation rate.

Conclusion: Preconditions for recovery

2025 was a disappointment for Bitcoin supporters, but VanEck is actively accumulating the asset, viewing the current undervaluation as a temporary phenomenon. Widening valuation gaps, liquidity recovery, and ongoing currency devaluation together could create conditions for Bitcoin to become one of the best assets in the market in 2026. The company’s assertion is based on long-term cyclical analysis, not short-term price movements.