Soybean Futures Rally on Friday Amid Mixed Signals

Soybean futures demonstrated solid strength on Friday, with most contract months climbing 4 to 5 cents, though the March contract showed more modest weekly performance, declining just 4¾ cents. The cmdtyView national cash bean benchmark settled at $9.87¼, reflecting a 5¼-cent premium for the week. This performance signals continued support in the complex despite some headwinds facing the broader soybean market.

Soybean Complex Shows Divergent Strength

The soybean meal futures sector outperformed, gaining 80 cents and reaching $2.40 higher on the session, despite March falling $13.70 over the week. Soy oil futures painted a different picture, posting losses of 18 to 36 points Friday, though the weekly aggregate showed 292 points of gains—underscoring the volatility inherent in the oilseed complex. Traders will face a pause on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, with markets reopening Monday evening.

Speculative Positioning Continues to Shift

The Commitment of Traders report released Friday afternoon revealed significant portfolio adjustments among speculative traders in soybean futures and options. These participants reduced their net long position by another 44,756 contracts, bringing the total to just 12,961 contracts as of January 13. This ongoing reduction suggests cautious sentiment among leveraged players monitoring the evolving supply-demand dynamics.

Export Sales Trail Seasonal Averages

Export sales data presents a challenging narrative for the soybean sector. Total U.S. soybean commitments stand at 30.637 MMT as of January 8—a concerning 25% below the comparative period in 2025. Current commitments represent only 71% of the USDA projection and trail normal pace by 15 percentage points. Actual accumulated shipments totaled 17.984 MMT, or 42% of the USDA estimate, significantly lagging the historical 60% average pace for this period.

Brazilian Crop Estimates Receive Modest Revision

Following updates from multiple private forecasting firms on Thursday, Safras raised their Brazilian soybean crop projection by 0.52 MMT to 179.28 MMT. This adjustment comes as global supply assessments remain under close scrutiny amid the broader commodity market backdrop.

Closing Prices Show Consistent Friday Gains

The session wrapped with the following soybean futures settlements:

• Mar 26 Soybeans: $10.57¾, up 4¾ cents
• Nearby Cash: $9.87¼, up 5¼ cents
• May 26 Soybeans: $10.68¾, up 4½ cents
• Jul 26 Soybeans: $10.81¼, up 5 cents

Barchart’s commodity analysis platform continues tracking these soybean futures developments as participants navigate the intersection of technical strength and fundamental softness in the export picture.