XRP Sends a Key Market Signal: Will the Bull Market Stall for Months Because of This?

As a highly watched asset on the Gate platform, XRP has recently remained in the market spotlight. However, as its price stabilized around $1.91 on January 21, 2026, a key technical signal triggered widespread alert among traders.

On-chain data shows that approximately 71% of XRP supply is currently in profit, which should reflect strong market confidence.

But at this moment, XRP’s Stochastic RSI indicator has fallen to an uncommon level of 0.00, marking the first such signal since the market bottom in 2022. This typically indicates that short-term selling pressure has exhausted, but it could also suggest a lack of upward momentum.

01 Market Status: Profitability Ratio and Price Performance

As of January 21, 2026, XRP is trading at $1.91990. This price is still some distance from its cycle high of $3.65703 set in July 2025 but has rebounded from recent lows.

Looking at holder structure, the current market presents a seemingly contradictory picture. Data shows that up to 71% of XRP supply is in profit.

Generally, a high profit ratio implies potential profit-taking motivation among holders, which could exert downward pressure on the price. However, the market has not experienced a large-scale sell-off immediately.

On the contrary, since July 2025, whale addresses have accumulated over 190 million XRP, indicating that large investors may be strategically positioning.

02 Rare Signal: Warnings from Historical Repetition

The core focus is on XRP’s Stochastic RSI reaching 0.00. In technical analysis, this is an extremely rare oversold signal, suggesting that short-term selling momentum may have been exhausted.

The last time this occurred was in 2022, after which the market indeed entered a bottoming process.

However, technical analysts do not interpret this signal as entirely optimistic. While reaching extreme values in Stochastic RSI may hint at a rebound, without strong fundamental buying support, it could merely be a short pause within a downtrend.

Currently, XRP’s daily RSI is at 54.03 in the neutral zone, while the MACD indicator shows conflicting signals: a slight improvement at the daily level but still negative on the weekly chart. This divergence indicates that the market has not yet formed a unified bullish consensus.

03 Technical Structure: Key Price Levels and Momentum Analysis

From a price structure perspective, XRP is currently consolidating within a narrow range. The $1.85 – $1.90 zone constitutes a recent key support band, where the price has tested and rebounded multiple times in recent weeks. Major resistance above is located at the $2.06 – $2.08 range.

Only a confirmed breakout above $2.08 could further challenge the stronger resistance levels at $2.32 and even $2.42.

In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD histogram hovers near zero, indicating a temporary balance of buying and selling forces. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands show XRP’s price closer to the lower band at $1.84, with considerable room to the upper band resistance at $2.32, leaving room for upward movement in theory.

04 Bull-Bear Divergence: Price Forecast and Market Outlook

Regarding XRP’s trajectory in 2026, major analysis firms and AI models provide significantly different predictions, reflecting substantial divergence in market opinions.

Conservative views suggest XRP may remain within a $1.90 – $2.40 range for most of the time. For example, CoinCodex forecasts its average price in the first half of the year to fluctuate between $1.82 and $2.80.

Optimistic views are much more bullish. Some AI models, such as Grok and Perplexity, under ideal conditions like large ETF inflows, give bold predictions from $8 to $10 . DigitalCoinPrice also projects its price could reach $2.92 by mid-year.

However, Monte Carlo simulation-based probability analysis offers a more rational perspective: simulations show that by December 2026, 60% of price scenarios will fall within $1.04 to $3.40, with only about 10% of extreme optimistic scenarios exceeding $5.90.

05 Factors Influencing Price: Fundamentals and Ecosystem

Beyond technicals, XRP’s long-term value remains closely tied to its fundamentals. The prolonged legal dispute between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially concluded in 2025, removing a major regulatory uncertainty that had troubled the market for years.

On the application front, Ripple launched the USD-pegged RLUSD stablecoin in 2025 and continues to promote its RippleNet adoption among global financial institutions. Additionally, the planned release of Confidential Multi-Function Tokens (MPTs) in Q1 2026 aims to provide privacy-enhanced asset transfer capabilities, potentially expanding institutional use cases.

Institutional capital flows are also noteworthy. Data shows that in December 2025, XRP-related ETF products saw a net inflow of $1.21 billion, indicating growing institutional investor interest. These factors collectively underpin XRP’s long-term value.

06 Risks and Strategies: Trading Reference for Gate Users

For traders on the Gate platform, a cautious approach is advisable given the complex signals currently present.

First, it’s important to clarify that even with 71% of holders in profit and the appearance of a rare oversold signal, this does not constitute a direct buy signal. The market could very well enter a sideways consolidation lasting several months under the combined influence of profit-taking and weak buying.

Operationally, consider focusing on key price levels:

• Aggressive investors may view around $1.90 as a potential observation zone but should set tight stop-losses, such as below $1.85.
• Conservative investors might wait for clearer breakout signals, such as a sustained move above $2.08 with volume, before considering entry, with targets around $2.20 – $2.35.
• Regardless of strategy, position sizing should be controlled to manage the inherent high volatility of the crypto market. The Average True Range (ATR) indicates XRP’s recent daily natural volatility can reach $0.10, about 5%.

Future Outlook

While the market debates the significance of XRP’s rare technical signals, institutional investors are not standing still. The $1.21 billion ETF capital inflow in December 2025, along with continuous accumulation by whale addresses over several months, starkly contrasts with the short-term technical chart’s indecision.

XRP’s latest price on the Gate platform is $1.91990, like a pointer hovering between the critical support at $1.85 and stubborn resistance at $2.42.