IG Market Analysts Unveil 2026 Outlook: Gold Price Growth Expected Amid Commodity Market Divergence

IG’s latest market research, spearheaded by analysts Farah Mourad and Ye Weiwen and reported by PANews on December 23, provides crucial insights into the divergent trajectories of commodity markets heading into 2026. The analysis reveals that while precious metals are poised for sustained strength, energy markets face mounting structural pressures—a fundamental split that investors must navigate carefully.

Precious Metals: Gold Price Momentum to Accelerate

The precious metals complex presents a notably optimistic picture, with gold emerging as the primary beneficiary of shifting macroeconomic dynamics. According to IG’s assessment, declining real yields, elevated government spending, and ongoing central bank accumulation of gold reserves create a powerful confluence of support factors. Major investment banks have established gold price targets ranging from $4,500 to $4,700 throughout 2026, with the possibility of breaching the psychologically significant $5,000 level should macroeconomic conditions prove favorable.

Silver’s narrative differs markedly from gold’s measured advance. Having surged 120% during 2025, silver has transitioned into a discovery phase characterized by supply constraints now entering their fifth consecutive year. Industrial demand acceleration provides additional tailwinds, positioning silver for potential breaks above $65, with technical indicators suggesting possible moves toward $72 or even $88. The precious metals sector’s trajectory is underpinned by genuine macroeconomic demand coupled with enduring structural support, distinguishing it from sectors facing temporary cyclical pressures.

Energy Markets Confront Structural Decline

Contrasting sharply with precious metals, the energy market navigates increasingly difficult waters. Oil markets are struggling under the weight of supply growth substantially outpacing demand, creating persistent downward pressure on valuations. IG’s projections suggest Brent crude will average approximately $62.23 per barrel in 2026, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is anticipated to trade around $59 on average. More concerning is JPMorgan Chase’s cautionary assessment that Brent crude could plunge into the $30 range should the supply glut intensify further—a scenario that would signal severe market stress.

Why Commodities Diverge: Structural Versus Cyclical Forces

The bifurcation between precious metals and energy reflects deeper market realities. IG’s analysis underscores that precious metals benefit from real demand drivers and long-term structural tailwinds, providing price stability even amid volatility. Energy, conversely, faces inexorable structural headwinds that weight heavily on forward momentum. While geopolitical risks possess the capacity to temporarily support oil prices and limit downside, these interventions are increasingly insufficient to offset fundamental supply-demand imbalances, positioning energy markets for continued underperformance relative to precious metals throughout 2026.