Core PCE is the strongest variable today. Data exceeding expectations is bearish for crypto; initial jobless claims being slightly strong is bearish, slightly weak is bullish; GDP revisions are bearish when upward, bullish when downward. When all three move in the same direction, volatility amplifies; when in opposite directions, they offset each other. In the short term, focus on liquidity expectations; in the long term, still consider the industry's own narrative.

1. Core PCE Price Index (21:30)

- Core Logic: The most important inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, directly affecting rate cut expectations and liquidity, with the highest impact on crypto.

- Expectations: November Core PCE annual rate 2.8%, monthly rate 0.2%.

- Surprising (annual rate >2.8%, monthly >0.2%): Reinforces prolonged high interest rates, USD and US Treasury yields rise, risk appetite declines, bearish for crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum may be under pressure.

- In line with expectations: Maintains current rate cut expectations, neutral impact, crypto may fluctuate or consolidate.

- Below expectations (annual rate <2.8%, monthly <0.2%): Rate cut expectations increase, funds flow into risk assets, bullish for crypto, or may trigger a rebound.

2. Initial Jobless Claims (21:30)

- Core Logic: Reflects labor market strength, indirectly influences monetary policy, which in turn affects risk assets like crypto.

- Expectations: 210,000 claims.

- Below expectations (<210,000): Strong employment resilience, rate hike or delayed rate cuts, bearish for crypto.

- In line with expectations: Stable labor market, neutral impact, limited volatility.

- Above expectations (>210,000): Employment weakening, rate cut expectations rise, bullish for crypto.

3. GDP Final Estimate (21:30)

- Core Logic: Reflects economic strength, influences policy and risk appetite, with less impact than PCE and initial claims.

- Expectations: 4.3% annualized quarterly growth.

- Upward revision (>4.3%): Economy overheating, delays rate cuts, bearish for crypto.

- In line with expectations: Stable economy, neutral impact.

- Downward revision (<4.3%): Economic slowdown, rate cut expectations increase, bullish for crypto.

4. Overall Impact and Trading Tips

- Data Combination: PCE above expectations + low initial claims + upward GDP revision = strong bearish signal, crypto may sharply decline; PCE below expectations + high initial claims + downward GDP revision = strong bullish signal, or strong rebound; mixed data increases volatility.

- Trading Tips: Control position sizes, set stop-loss and take-profit levels; monitor changes in Fed policy expectations; combine with crypto fundamentals (such as ETF fund flows, industry dynamics) for comprehensive judgment.

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