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Technical Outlook on Altcoins: Ethereum Faces Challenges as XRP Price Stabilizes
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen from its intraday high of $3039 and is currently holding above the support level at $3000, indicating early profit-taking and macroeconomic risks ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.
Technical indicators suggest that Ethereum is testing critical support levels, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3102 serving as a key battleground between buyers and sellers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (RSI) has fallen below the midline and is currently at 47 on the daily chart, implying a potential continuation of bearish momentum.
A decisive break above the midline would indicate that the RSI (RSI) is approaching overbought territory and increase the chances of a stronger rebound, targeting the 100-day EMA at $3233 and the 200-day EMA at $3303.
However, the MACD on the same chart remains below the signal line, suggesting that investors may reduce their positions, which could increase selling pressure. A price reversal below $3000 could push Ethereum toward its Tuesday low of $2900.
Daily ETH/USDT Chart
As for XRP, bullish traders continue their efforts to break through the 50-day EMA at $2.02. If the digital asset, used for cross-border money transfers, maintains its stability above the support level at $1.90 and the daily RSI (RSI) rises to 45, its bullish trajectory will remain intact.
Daily XRP/USDT Chart
Traders will watch the MACD for a crossover above the buy signal line, expecting a strong rebound above $2.00. However, the chart below zero indicates a risk-on sentiment, warranting caution. The next major support level is at $1.81, tested on Sunday, along with the April low of $1.61.
Caution Ahead of the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate at the target range of 3.50% - 3.75% during its meeting on Wednesday, halting the monetary easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 that lowered borrowing costs to their lowest level since early 2023.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that investors still expect a 97.2% probability that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, with only 2.8% of market participants expecting a cut to the 3.25%–3.50% range.
Interest rate cuts act as a catalyst for rising high-risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins, while maintaining low interest rates restricts liquidity.
FedWatch Tool | Source: CME Group
U.S. President Donald Trump urges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to significantly cut borrowing costs, but monetary policymakers insist on responding to market conditions and current data. The central bank often faces a dual task of reducing inflation to the 2% target and lowering unemployment.
U.S. job growth has slowed sharply in recent months, while the unemployment rate remains steady. However, with inflation surpassing the 2% target, policymakers may signal a temporary pause in the monetary easing cycle. Investors will closely watch the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's press conference for any hints about the potential timing of the next rate cut.