【$SOL Signal】Hold Cash and Wait — A Battle Between Bulls and Bears in Deep Imbalance, Observation Is Best

$SOL Is repeatedly testing the key support level on the 4H timeframe (around the previous low of 78.5). Price action shows intense bulls and bears struggle, but lacks a clear one-sided driving signal.

The current market presents conflicting signals: on one hand, the funding rate is -0.0198% (negative), and open interest (OI) remains stable, indicating potential short squeeze risk, so shorting is prohibited. On the other hand, the price is suppressed below EMA20 (83.37) and EMA50 (88.99), with the overall trend still bearish. Depth data shows buy orders (Bids) are significantly thicker than sell orders (Asks), with an imbalance of 9.05%, suggesting institutional support and accumulation below 80, but the price has failed to rebound effectively, indicating heavy selling pressure above.

🎯Direction: Hold Cash

Hardcore Logic: Price fluctuates within the key zone of 78.5-81.5, RSI (34.69) is in a neutral to weak zone, with no oversold divergence. The 4H candlestick repeatedly tests the 78.5 area with long lower shadows, but rebound highs are gradually decreasing (83.13 -> 81.08), forming a descending triangle pattern, a typical hesitation structure. ATR (2.4) indicates moderate volatility, but the direction remains unclear.

The core contradiction is between negative funding rate + stable OI versus price being suppressed by moving averages + lower highs. This is neither a healthy retracement for a long setup (no volume contraction + RSI correction to 50), nor a clear short resonance (no high funding rate + declining OI + bearish divergence). Entering now offers low win rate and difficult risk-reward assessment. The best strategy is to wait for a confirmed bullish return with a decisive break above 81.5 (accompanied by rising OI), or a volume-supported drop below 78.5 (accompanied by declining OI) to confirm a bearish dominance.

Trade here 👇 $SOL

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