#比特币下一步怎么走？ Bitcoin or "halves" again to $31,000

On February 14, according to Business Insider, a strategist from Ned Davis Research stated in a report to clients that despite Bitcoin experiencing large-scale sell-offs over the past few months, it still faces further downside risk.
Pat Tschosik, Chief Market Strategist at Ned Davis Research, and analyst Philippe Mouls pointed out that based on analysis of past Bitcoin downturn cycles, if the current bear market evolves into a full-blown "crypto winter," the decline from peak to trough could reach 70%-75%, meaning Bitcoin could drop as low as $31,000. Bitcoin has already fallen 44% from its peak in October last year. If it drops to $31,000, it would mean a further 55% decline from current levels.
Tschosik and Mouls added that data shows, dating back to 2011, the average decline during Bitcoin bear markets is 84%, lasting an average of 225 days. Since Bitcoin peaked in early October last year, only 129 days have passed.
However, the two analysts also pointed out that a "winter" is not necessarily inevitable.
Compared to the past, Bitcoin now has more institutional buyers, which could bring greater stability to prices.
"Historical data shows that the declines during winter/major bear markets tend to slow slightly over time. We believe this trend will continue," they said when discussing price forecasts.
From Heaven to Hell: $800 Billion Evaporated in 4 Months, a Shocking Crash Trajectory!!!
Let's let the data speak:
October 6, 2025: Bitcoin hits a record high of $126,198
End of November 2025: Falls below $85,000, a 32% drop in one month
January 2026: Loses the $70,000 level, panic spreads among investors
February 14, 2026: Quoted at $68,850, a 45% decline from the high
In just 129 days, Bitcoin's market cap evaporated over $800 billion (about 5.8 trillion RMB).
Equivalent to: twice the market value of the entire Moutai Group (about 2.5 trillion),
The combined market value of Tencent and Alibaba,
One-fifth of Germany's GDP.
Who is the biggest victim?
This round of crash has not only wiped out retail investors' funds but also caused heavy losses for institutional investors:
Tesla: Bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2021, currently with a paper loss of over 60%
MicroStrategy: CEO Michael Saylor has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, holding over 150,000 BTC, with unrealized losses exceeding $8 billion
Bitcoin ETF investors have experienced continuous net outflows since the peak in 2025
Miners: Mining costs are about $35,000-$40,000 per BTC. The current price has approached the cost line. Even more frightening is that, according to Wall Street predictions, this is just the "appetizer."