ALTSEASON COMES IN WAVES

For the last 2 years, we have ignore this 120 day cycle that comes when everyone is giga bullish.
Not “a bad week.”
Not “a red month.”
A full 4-month downtrend.
If you’re sitting in drawdowns right now, this is the first real reason to feel a bit hopeful again.
👉 THE PATTERN NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT
Look at Total3 (altcoin market cap ex BTC/ETH) since Jan 2024.
We get a push.
Then we get a long grind down.
Q1 2024: altcoins rip.
Then they enter a 120-day downtrend where everything feels dead and bounces get sold.
Later in the cycle, we get another big leg up (the chart marks a Q4 rally), and guess what happens again?
Another 120-day downtrend into early 2026.
Same length. Same vibe.
What does that tell you?
This cycle isn’t “only up.” It’s been moving in blocks:
rally → distribution → slow bleed → reset → rally.
Most people only notice the rally.
Traders who survive notice the reset.
And we’re in the reset zone again.
👉 WHY THIS SETUP CAN TURN BULLISH FROM HERE
Now look at what’s happening at the bottom of the chart.
Price has dropped back into a major support band that acted like a floor before. You can see how the market keeps reacting around that zone.
At the same time, RSI has been trending down for months and is now sitting at the depressed end of its range. You don’t need to worship RSI, but when momentum is crushed after a long timed downtrend, it usually means selling is getting exhausted.
The clean takeaway is simple:
When you get a time-based downtrend (120 days) two times in the same cycle, it often marks the “capitulation window” where weak hands exit and value buyers start building positions slowly.
Does that mean we go straight up tomorrow?
No.
But it does mean the odds shift from “random downside” to “base building.”
And if Bitcoin stops being a problem for a few weeks, this is usually where altcoins start catching bids again.
This is the part of the cycle where patience pays.
Not because the chart is pretty.
Because the panic has already done its job.