#比特币跌幅逼近历史极值 Bitcoin or sets a new longest consecutive decline record since the 2018 bear market, with a drop approaching historical extremes

On February 17th, the cryptocurrency market once again sent investors into a state of heightened nerves. According to well-known industry media Decrypt, Bitcoin is at an extremely dangerous historical juncture: if it cannot reverse the downward trend by the end of this month, Bitcoin will record its fifth consecutive month of decline.
This trend is not only astonishing but will also set the longest consecutive decline since the “epic” bear market of 2018. As of now, the single-month decline in February has reached 13.98%, and the market’s chill has been transmitted through data to every investor’s screen.

Echoes of History: Astonishing Similarities
Tracing back to the start of this cycle, after Bitcoin hit its all-time high in October 2025, the market entered a long downward channel. In just 123 days, the cumulative decline has reached 52.44%. Behind this figure lies an unsettling comparison — less than 4 percentage points away from the maximum drawdown of 56.26% during the 2018 bear market (3.82%).
This “cliff-like” speed of decline far exceeds previous instances, breaking through multiple psychological barriers and causing “bull market faith” to shatter within just four months.
Compared to the prolonged downturn of 2018, this correction is even more rapid and decisive, demonstrating a firm exit of capital.

Sentiment and Capital: The Battle in Extreme Panic Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen back to $2.33 trillion, a further 1.33% drop in the past 24 hours. In terms of sentiment indicators, although the Fear & Greed Index has slightly rebounded from a single digit “8” to “12,” this value remains firmly anchored in the “extreme fear” zone. This indicates that market liquidity is extremely scarce, with most participants in a wait-and-see or stop-loss exit state.
A more direct reflection of pessimism is seen in market predictions. On the Myriad platform, traders are expressing their outlook with real money: up to 60% of funds are betting that Bitcoin will first break below $55,000, rather than rebound to $84,000. This one-sided bearish sentiment further intensifies market selling pressure.

Technical Analysis: Absolute Dominance of Bearish Momentum
From a technical chart perspective, the bulls are almost defenseless. Bitcoin’s price is currently entirely below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), and the EMA50, which indicates short- to medium-term trend, has crossed below EMA200, forming a classic bearish alignment. This structure often signals confirmation of a long-term downtrend.
All oscillation indicators are also not optimistic. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is only at 34.7, on the verge of oversold territory, but no clear divergence reversal signals have appeared, indicating the market remains in a bearish zone.
More deadly is the Average Directional Index (ADX), which has surged to a high of 56.4. ADX is used to measure trend strength, and such a high value suggests that the current decline is not a short-term correction but a very strong and inertial one-sided downward force.

Reversal Thresholds and the Pull of Reality
Market analysts generally believe that Bitcoin faces significant technical challenges if it is to reverse the current downward trend. To confirm a trend reversal, the price must not only break back above the psychological barrier of $100,000 but also form a “higher lows” structural reversal pattern on the candlestick chart. However, based on current data models and market sentiment, the rally of the bulls seems distant.
Whether it’s capital outflows or deteriorating technical indicators, all point to the fact that the crypto market is in a rare and sustained downward correction phase in history. For investors, the current main theme may no longer be bottom-fishing, but rather how to survive the winter.