【Gate Square In-Depth】"Double Stress Test: Bitcoin Under Pressure and Regulatory Breakthroughs Shape a New Web3 Landscape"

In 2026, Web3 is experiencing an unprecedented "ice and fire" situation: on one hand, Bitcoin continues to face pressure around the $70,000 mark, with daily ETF capital outflows reaching $105 million, and the average holding cost of new whale entrants over the past 30 days exceeding the current price. The $65,000 support level has become a life-and-death line for the market — Arthur Hayes warns that the divergence between BTC and tech stocks is a "fire alarm for the fiat system"; on the other hand, regulatory breakthroughs are happening intensively: the CFTC publicly supports prediction markets as "legitimate financial innovation," institutions like Bitwise are rushing to apply for ETFs, the European Central Bank has launched a digital euro pilot, global regulation is shifting from "total ban" to "classified regulation," Coin Center calls for the retention of the crypto developer protection act, and industry associations are forming prediction market working groups to seek policy guidance.

This dramatic divergence is essentially a key transformation in Web3 from wild growth to rational maturity: market stress tests are filtering out anti-cyclical assets, while regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for large-scale institutional capital inflows. The current market exhibits a structural pattern of "compliance premium, value revaluation, and innovation-driven growth." Investors should adhere to a "core allocation + satellite deployment + risk control" strategy: 60% of the portfolio anchored in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and RWA sectors; 30% in Solana's innovative ecosystem and prediction markets; and 10% for strict stop-loss and cash reserves. Stress testing is not an industry winter but a shuffle for the next cycle — only projects that can withstand volatility, maintain compliance, and seize innovation will stand out.

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