THE XRP REVERSAL: MVRV OVERSOLD SIGNAL AND MID-TIER ACCUMULATION SPARK HOPES FOR A JULY 2024-STYLE

XRP is flashing significant “undervalued” signals as of February 21, 2026, with technical and on-chain metrics mirroring the conditions that led to a massive 51% surge in July 2024. The asset’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has spent an extended period below the 1.0 threshold, a zone historically associated with the final stages of capitulation and the onset of a trend reversal. While XRP remains pinned beneath a 2026 descending trendline, the stabilization of mid-tier holder addresses (10,000+ XRP) suggests that conviction is returning. If the $1.57 resistance can be flipped into support, it could open a clear path toward the $1.91 recovery target. Undervalued territory: The MVRV Capitulation Signal XRP’s presence in the “oversold” zone of the MVRV model suggests that the current correction may be nearing its end. Below 1.0 Threshold: Trading below a 1.0 MVRV ratio indicates that the asset is undervalued relative to the average acquisition cost of its holders. Historically, when XRP spends about 15% of its trading days in this zone, a significant price reversal follows.The July 2024 Parallel: In July 2024, a nearly identical MVRV setup served as the catalyst for a 51% rally within days. While not a guarantee, current data shows the market is “getting low,” typically a precursor to a sharp upward move once selling pressure exhausts. Mid-Tier Conviction: Holders with 10,000+ XRP Stabilize Shifting on-chain behavior among non-whale participants suggests that broader confidence is beginning to mend. Renewed Participation: After the largest drop in mid-tier addresses since 2020, the count of wallets holding 10,000 XRP or more has finally begun to stabilize.Confidence Waterfall: Rising conviction in this mid-sized holder group often follows accumulation by larger “smart money” whales and precedes a broader retail recovery. This stabilization is a vital pillar for price support as XRP attempts to break its year-to-date downtrend. Technical Roadmap: Breaking the $1.57 Downtrend Barrier XRP is currently trading at $1.42, treading a narrow line between a vital support floor and a persistent resistance ceiling. The $1.36 Support Floor: Maintaining this base is essential for the bullish thesis. A breakdown below $1.36 would invalidate the recovery setup and likely expose the asset to a deeper slide toward $1.11.The $1.57 Breakout Level: XRP has been rejected three times this year by a descending trendline. Reclaiming the $1.57 level is the primary requirement to confirm a trend reversal.The $1.91 Target: A decisive breakout and flip of $1.57 into support would clear the path for a 30%+ advance toward $1.91, effectively ending the bearish structure that has dominated XRP in early 2026. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a potential XRP reversal and the MVRV “oversold” signal are based on technical analysis and on-chain data from Glassnode as of February 21, 2026. Metrics like MVRV and address stabilization are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price performance. XRP remains a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; the $1.42 valuation is subject to rapid shifts, and a breakdown below the $1.36 support could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Ripple or XRP.

Do you think the July 2024-style rally is about to repeat, or will the 2026 downtrend prove too strong for XRP?