RAOUL PAL FORECASTS $140,000 BITCOIN AS GLOBAL LIQUIDITY MODELS SIGNAL A VIOLENT PRICE REPRICING

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a “deep discount” relative to global liquidity models, according to macro strategist and former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal. As of February 22, 2026, Pal argues that a convergence of macro forces including U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) drawdowns, China’s balance sheet expansion, and weakening dollar dynamics is preparing the market for the “Banana Zone.” This final acceleration phase of the crypto cycle suggests that if Bitcoin realigns with prevailing liquidity conditions, the price could snap violently toward $140,000. With the structural overhang from previous liquidation cascades fading, the stage is set for a nonlinear move that far exceeds current market consensus. Liquidity Leading Price: The $140,000 Model Raoul Pal’s thesis rests on the idea that Bitcoin acts as a “global liquidity sponge,” reacting to changes in the financial system long before they are reflected in retail sentiment. The Valuation Gap: Current liquidity models suggest that Bitcoin should already be valued near $140,000. Historically, gaps between expanding liquidity and price do not resolve gradually; they close through “upside shocks” where the asset reprices into a significantly higher range.Q1 2026 Inflection: Several factors are converging to inject fresh liquidity into the system, including bank regulatory adjustments (ESLR) that allow for more debt absorption and a drawdown of the Treasury General Account. Clearing the Overhang: Fading Resistance at $100,000 The disconnect between Bitcoin’s price and its fundamentals in late 2025 was largely due to structural “damage” that Pal believes is finally resolving. Post-Cascade Recovery: The “October 10 liquidation cascade” removed market makers and forced deleveraging that suppressed prices beyond what fundamentals justified. Pal believes this structural damage is now a thing of the past.Yield Product Exhaustion: A cluster of call-selling strategies near the $100,000 strike often used in yield-generating crypto products created a heavy ceiling for Bitcoin. As this selling pressure eases and the market digests prior volatility, the path toward a nonlinear breakout becomes clearer. The “Banana Zone” and the Business Cycle Forward-looking indicators tied to global growth are providing secondary confirmation for a massive rally. ISM and Growth: Pal tracks the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index, which suggests an improving global growth environment driven by fiscal stimulus, data center investment, and potential mortgage rate relief.The Final Phase: The “Banana Zone” is defined by nonlinear, parabolic price action fueled by a mix of high liquidity and renewed capital inflows. Pal suggests that by the time market consensus turns universally bullish, the “snap” toward $140,000 will likely already be well underway. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Raoul Pal’s forecast of a $140,000 Bitcoin rally and the “Banana Zone” are macro-investing theses and not guaranteed price outcomes as of February 22, 2026. Liquidity models are probabilistic and subject to shifts in central bank policy, geopolitical events, and regulatory changes. Bitcoin remains an extremely high-risk asset subject to significant volatility; a 106% rally target involves immense speculative risk and the potential for total capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Bitcoin or digital assets.

Do you think the “Banana Zone” is the real deal, or is a $140,000 Bitcoin too optimistic for Q1 2026?