There is a well-known topic in the cryptocurrency world—the "Four-Year Cycle" of Bitcoin. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin's mining reward is halved, significantly slowing down the issuance of new coins in the market. According to past patterns, the halving usually triggers a bull run, pushing prices to new highs, followed by a major correction, and then a prolonged bear market. This logic has proven reliable in the past. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price surged straight up, reaching a new high within a year; the halvings in 2016 and 2020 also followed the same script. Because of this, many investors and analysts have regarded this cycle as a golden rule for market prediction. But this time, things seem to have changed. The halving in April 2024 was supposed to follow the old path, but reality gave us a big slap. According to data, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 on October 6, but then the market started to decline. By the end of the year, the price had fallen by over 30%, and the closing price in 2024 was lower than the opening price at the start of the year. This is a first in Bitcoin's history—within a year after the halving, Bitcoin ended with a decline. Industry insiders have openly stated that this means the four-year cycle has "officially declared its death." Some investors' analyses point to a new variable—the entry of institutional investors has changed the game. Market dynamics are no longer so simple, and breaking the cycle seems to have become the new normal.

Recently, an economic forecast predicted that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates three times in the first half of 2026. At first glance, this information seems far away from us, but its impact on the crypto market should not be underestimated. First, understand what a rate cut means—it essentially increases market liquidity. When the cost of funds decreases, investors will seek more asset allocation channels, and stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies may all become options. Historical data shows that during the previous rate-cut cycle, Bitcoin and mainstream cryptocurrencies responded noticeably, which is not a coincidence but a natural market reaction when liquidity is abundant. However, there is a key point: the market usually reacts in advance to expectations. Although the rate cut policy will not officially be implemented until 2026, sensitive funds have already begun to position themselves. This means that from now on, macro expectations may gradually influence market trends. Don’t relax your vigilance just because the time is still early. So how should ordinary investors respond? **First, maintain core positions.** Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have withstood market tests, tend to perform steadily during periods of loose liquidity. Short-term fluctuations are normal, but long-term trends require patience. Frequent trading may lead to being shaken out. **Second, keep some flexible funds.** Going all-in has never been wise. Setting aside some liquid capital provides opportunities to build positions gradually during short-term dips caused by data volatility. Especially when high-quality assets are priced during panic, these are often the best entry points. **Third, be cautious with small-cap coins.** The rate-cut cycle will indeed attract risk-tolerant capital, but market hot spots rotate quickly. Before policies are fully implemented, the market may experience multiple fluctuations. Focusing resources on leading assets will reduce risk. From a broader macro perspective, the key is not to precisely predict the exact day of policy shifts, but to check whether your investment structure is healthy enough in advance. Is your allocation reasonable? Is your mindset stable? Do you have enough emergency funds? These are much more important than chasing short-term trends. In the crypto market, the core is not how much you earn, but how long you can survive. Persisting in the market, staying rational, and patiently positioning are the correct ways to navigate cycles. The macro trend is about to change—be prepared and wait for opportunities to arrive.

Starting with 25,000 USDT, aiming to reach 200,000, now the account has already grown to 1.2 million. But to be honest, the market is really too dull. During the New Year's holiday these days, there has been almost no movement, feeling like the big players are secretly sharpening their knives. This dead silence in the market is the easiest time for surprises to happen. Instead of waiting around, it's better to take profits when the conditions are good. Holding onto the position for a whole day and night, I finally decided to close it first. When you're unsure of the direction, timely take profit and stop loss are often the smartest choices. BTC's current trend is indeed somewhat ambiguous. What do you think will happen next? If you have ideas, feel free to leave a comment and discuss.