When opening the market software to view the K-line, I noticed an interesting phenomenon—Bitcoin is moving in a rhythm completely opposite to that of Nasdaq. This is not common recently. More worth noting is the timing: a few days ago, the market was calm, with major funds holding steady, yet suddenly on Friday, when everyone wants to "peacefully enjoy the weekend," they suddenly exerted force. This operational logic is worth deeper reflection. I saw many opinions in several communication communities. Retail investors are generally eager, thinking this is a good opportunity to bottom fish and want to seize the chance to collect "cheap chips." But there's a problem: the true market bottom is never so easy to find. If the bottom were so easy to catch, institutions and major players would have no profit margins. The internal logic of this operation is actually not complicated. The Friday rally exploits retail investors' fear of missing out—you're afraid of missing the opportunity, so you're more likely to chase high and enter the market. Meanwhile, the market is closed on Saturday and Sunday, providing the major players with ample window to adjust their positions. By the time the market opens on Monday, retail investors who bought at high levels may face a pullback. This routine is old-fashioned, but it always successfully entices a wave of participants. The key is to recognize the logic behind it. The market is never short of such inducive trends, but those who can truly catch the bottom are often those who stay calm and are not swayed by emotions.

The New Year holiday just passed, and the Federal Reserve made a big move early this morning—an injection of $74.6 billion in liquidity, the largest scale since the pandemic began. As soon as the news broke, the trading groups exploded—some directly exclaimed "Bitcoin surging to $200,000," while others nervously asked "Is this a trap set by the big players?" But don’t rush to judgment; we need to understand what’s really going on. So-called liquidity injection, simply put, is the central bank "transfusing blood" into the banking system to ensure ample market liquidity. You can think of it like relatives giving red envelopes during the New Year—when people have more cash on hand, they naturally consider investing. Due to the high risk and high return characteristics, the crypto market has always been a hot destination for funds, with Bitcoin, MEME coins, and similar assets being the first choices. However, there’s an important point that cannot be overlooked: don’t be fooled by the label "the largest scale since COVID-19." This round of liquidity infusion isn’t as simple as it seems. From the Federal Reserve’s operational logic, the banking system tends to experience liquidity tightness at the end of the year. The $74.6 billion injection is essentially an "emergency measure" rather than a "massive flood." The core purpose is clear—stabilize the financial system and prevent economic risks from spreading. Looking at historical data, you’ll see the difference. The liquidity injections during the pandemic in 2020 were comprehensive and continuous, covering monetary policy, fiscal support, and more, with a scale and duration far exceeding this time. In comparison, the current operation is more like "targeted drip irrigation"—aimed at addressing the liquidity gap at year-end. The intensity and scope are simply not in the same league. Therefore, investors need to remain rational. This liquidity injection will indeed improve the market’s cash flow, but don’t expect it to be a savior for the crypto market. The real opportunity lies in understanding the economic cycle logic behind the policies and capturing genuine value amid market sentiment fluctuations. As for concerns about "诱多陷阱" (trap to induce buying), rather than fixating on that, it’s better to focus on risk management and position planning.

The New Year's rebound has lulled many into complacency, but the true face of the market often hides behind the numbers. As we step into 2026, a more complex and covert risk is brewing. Bitcoin hovers around $90,000, a level that is not only a technical threshold but also a psychological battleground for bulls and bears. Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders have been liquidated, with爆仓 amounts exceeding $200 million—these figures behind the violent game of extreme testing and "painting the door" cleansing. Rapid surges and drops within hours often target leveraged traders chasing the high, and such intense volatility is far from ordinary fluctuations. Meanwhile, the massive inflow of Ethereum into exchanges should not be ignored, as it often signals an impending large-scale sell-off. Traders near key levels should remain vigilant; reducing leverage or adopting a wait-and-see approach might be wiser choices. Remember a simple truth: not losing money is itself a victory. Macroeconomic uncertainty stems from divergent Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Market anticipation of policy directions swings back and forth, and the root of volatility lies here. The US CPI data on January 13 will set the tone for inflation, while the Federal Reserve meeting on January 28 may send hawkish signals that trigger significant waves. Before these key data releases, reducing positions is a necessary move to protect funds—never gamble your principal on data. Regulatory changes are also worth noting. Brazil's new regulations will take effect on February 2, potentially causing unpredictable chain reactions. More directly, the potential reclassification of digital asset government bonds by MSCI on January 15 could lead passive tracking funds to withdraw significantly, and those companies already experiencing net asset value breakdowns are under pressure. In such an environment, avoiding fragile assets and focusing on high-liquidity core assets is especially important. The start of 2026 gives us a clear reminder: $90,000 is not just a price; it is an amplifier of market sentiment. While watching the market, also pay attention to macro policies and regulatory developments. For traders, capital safety always takes precedence over profit pursuit. Bull markets often end amid collective frenzy, and the current market's coexistence of skepticism and optimism is inherently risky. Recognizing and managing risks is the right attitude to navigate market fluctuations.