The wind has risen, and waking up to see the rain, the weather in the Pearl River Delta has been quite abnormal in recent years. Just before the Mid-Autumn Festival, there's such a powerful typhoon. I guess the small business owners who are doing business these days are probably having a hard time sleeping, just like me.
The weekend market experienced an unexpected spike, with 1.6 billion dollars evaporating just like that. During last night's live broadcast, many friends liked to look for reasons. In fact, when you've been in this circle for a long time, you'll understand that this is a very normal phenomenon. I just want to tell you that this time the operator is not the institutional investor you thought, but the centralized exchange you have long relied on. Weekends are generally a time when institutions take a break, and the only behind-the-scenes force capable of initiating such a precise breakout is the CEX that controls massive amounts of data. This is a very sensitive topic, but if you're smart enough to think deeply, perhaps you can still find a way to see through this predatory market.
For most friends trading contracts, the biggest mystery in the crypto world is not who Satoshi Nakamoto is, but why the price is the same while the positions seem to have disappeared. You will always believe that only a few people can really make money in this market, and the contribution of most people who come to this market is just as fuel; otherwise, the market would not be able to develop and operate.
For most friends involved in spot trading, the biggest feeling in the cryptocurrency world is not the joy of arbitrage profit-taking, but the agony of being trapped for the long term. Compared to other financial markets, our circle is more direct in understanding human nature and psychological research. Before this decline, most newcomers were full of expectation for interest rate cuts, firmly believing that ETH would surge past 5000 and kick off the altcoin season. For small retail investors with a poor mindset, the king of altcoins has recently dropped below 4200, and most friends might think that the bull market has ended. However, in light of the interest rate cut cycle and the yet-to-begin QE fundamentals, I still judge that this is the market playing psychological games with you; the bull market has not ended.
One of the core issues we mentioned during the live broadcast regarding the difficulty of this bull market is the liquidity of funds in the market. You might want to observe that for traditional players in the domestic market, is it more difficult for newcomers to enter the circle than before? Whether it's from information channels, funding channels, or track selection, the player base this time is indeed showing a downward trend compared to the previous two rounds. Most of the veterans in the crypto space from the last bull market who are still in the market are players who experienced the 2017-2018 period, while many friends who only experienced the bull market in 2021 have actually become disappointed and left the market.
In contrast, in other countries, especially South America and Southeast Asia, including HK and TW, the number of players in the cryptocurrency space is on the rise, particularly among those born after 2000, who are entering the market in multiples. Meanwhile, in the beautiful country waving the flag of WEB3, the number of institutions and retail investors is also increasing, but the methods of entry there are more diversified, including trading ETFs in the cryptocurrency market, stocks of related industry companies, and so on.
So many players have entered the market, where has the incremental capital flowed? There are three directions: BTC, MEME, and the primary market, as well as the U.S. stock market. These three directions have a very serious siphoning effect on the altcoins in the secondary market. You might have questions; you can understand the first two reasons, but in recent times, the U.S. stock market has been hitting new highs while the crypto market has been oscillating at high levels, and there has even been a pullback after the vague meeting. Isn't it said that BTC and the U.S. stock market are deeply bound? How can it drop without rising?
Actually, these are all illusions, right? During this period, while U.S. stocks are rising, the crypto circle is sluggish. The underlying logic is not difficult to understand; there exists a certain rotation rhythm between different markets, with funds often flowing first into more mature markets, and then gradually spilling over into other areas. If we observe last year's data, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market is on the rise. Most quality altcoins have shown significant price increases compared to the same period last year. Although these increases have declined compared to the previous bull market, the characteristic of the crypto circle is that it falls sharply but also rises quickly. Most altcoins generally spend about 70% of the year in a sideways or stagnant phase. Therefore, whether based on historical cycles or fundamental trends, it is judged that there will be another round of bull market tail-end surge. The key events are the signals of continuous interest rate cuts and the upcoming QE cycle.
If you believe, then firmly hold onto your chips; if you disagree, find an opportunity to exit as soon as possible. The risks ahead are not something everyone can bear, and there are no clear indicators to tell you when to get off. In the past two bull market tails, I have seen too many people lose money at this stage, all because they couldn't manage their mindset and rhythm well. We are all adults, the money is ours, and we should take responsibility for our positions.
According to observations of on-chain data over the past two days, 70% of the 1.6 billion liquidated funds came from ETH, 22% from other major altcoins, and 8% from BTC. Appropriate leverage liquidation can make spot positions easier, which is something that has been repeatedly reminded in the dynamics and is particularly worth paying attention to. Personally, I believe that a price correction at this stage is not a bad thing; rather, it can be viewed as an opportunity to enter the market. Just like limited-time offers in a shopping mall, those who are patient often get phase-low priced tokens. When the market warms up, prices can easily rebound (currently, the on-chain data from Monday to Tuesday shows that BTC and ETH ETFs, as well as some mainstream altcoins, are experiencing positive inflows, which indirectly proves that retail investors are selling while large holders are buying. This phenomenon should be judged for itself.)
During the live broadcast, we also talked about some common topics. The core test in the crypto world often revolves around human nature, and patience is the true strategy for most ordinary players. Short-term market trends can be unpredictable; those who are eager to chase gains and cut losses are more likely to be repeatedly harvested. In contrast, those who can remain rational, calm, and patient are the ones who can go further and last longer. If you also want to be more stable and rational, take some time to learn and review historical K-lines; the more you look at them, the better you should be able to figure out some insights.
So is it a good time to enter the market now? I have already started preparing, and during the live broadcast, I analyzed with everyone using K-line and auxiliary indicators that there should be a continued decline for another 1-2 weeks. I suggest that everyone wait a bit longer, but I will start my short-term positions after ETH drops below 4000, placing orders at three different price points. Additionally, I will keep an eye on which sectors and mainstream coins will lead the rebound, and under the right circumstances, I will share that with everyone.
As I write this, I just saw a push from Jinshi, where Old Bao said that the US stock market is already overvalued, which might be good news for the crypto world ☕#加密市场回调#
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