XRP / USD Investment Guide: A Newbie's Handbook from Market Events to Technical Signals

Current XRP / USD basic situation

Image:https://www.gate.com/trade/XRP_USDT

As of the writing of this article, the trading price of XRP / USD is approximately 2.28 USD, a slight rebound from around 2.10 USD at the beginning of the month. Over the past two weeks, the price has mainly fluctuated in the range of 2.20 — 2.35 USD, showing a consolidation pattern. Compared to first-tier currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP still has certain competitiveness in cross-border payments and DeFi scenarios. In the short term, if it breaks through the resistance at 2.35 USD, it may attract more buying interest.

Recent market news highlights

1. U.S. court ruling
   The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that the president does not have the authority to impose emergency tariffs bypassing Congress, stabilizing market expectations for the macroeconomy. XRP, as a fundamental token for cross-border payments, has benefited significantly in the short term, with prices rising rapidly.

2. SEC Crypto Roundtable Preview
   The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it will hold a roundtable titled "DeFi and the Spirit of America" on June 9 in Washington, D.C., with industry representatives such as Cola media personnel and Rebecca Rettig from Jito Labs in attendance. If the meeting sends positive regulatory signals, XRP / USD may see a new wave of increase.

3. International capital flow and exchange orders
   According to data from CoinGecko and CryptoQuant, global funds allocated to XRP / USD increased in late May. In spot exchanges such as Binance and Gate.com, buy orders for XRP / USD are concentrated in the range of 2.20 — 2.25 USD, while sell orders are clustered in the range of 2.30 — 2.35 USD. If bullish buying stabilizes at 2.20 USD, it can provide support for subsequent upward trends.

Technical Analysis: Trend Lines and Key Indicators

1. Falling Wedge Pattern
   On the 4-hour chart, XRP / USD has started to form a Falling Wedge since mid to late May. The two descending trend lines are gradually converging, and the trading volume shows a decreasing trend. This pattern typically indicates that selling pressure is weakening, and bulls are likely to have a short-term rebound opportunity after breaking above the wedge line. If the breakout point is confirmed at 2.35 USD, it is expected to further challenge the 2.50 — 2.63 USD range.

2. Moving Average System

   • 50 Period EMA: Currently around $2.30, if the price can stabilize above this line and move upwards, it will help confirm the return of the bulls.
   • 100 Period EMA: Around $2.35, if it can break through and stabilize, it will open up space towards $2.50.
   • 200 Period EMA: Approximately $2.40, an important resistance level, where both bulls and bears are expected to engage in fierce competition.

3. Momentum Indicator

   • Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently, the RSI is oscillating in the range of 48 - 52, close to the 50 midline. If the RSI rises and breaks above 55, it indicates an increase in bullish momentum; if it falls below 45, caution is needed for a short-term pullback.
   • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD histogram is gradually decreasing, and the blue fast line is approaching the red slow line, indicating the possibility of a golden cross formation. If the golden cross appears above the 0 axis, it can be considered a confirmation of an upward signal.

4. Trading volume and trading volume moving average
   In the past week, the daily trading volume of XRP / USD has increased by more than 20% compared to the previous week. If the price breaks through resistance with an increase in volume, the upward momentum will be more sustainable. Conversely, if there is insufficient volume at high levels, there may be selling pressure above.

Analysis of Capital Flow in Derivatives and Spot Markets

1. Open Interest
   According to CoinGlass data, the open interest in the XRP / USD futures market is approximately 467 million USD, down 4.6% from the previous day. This indicates that short-term long positions are being liquidated, and the market may be undergoing a correction. It is possible that bulls are adding positions near key support levels, waiting for the opportunity to initiate the next round of upward movement.

2. Volume Change
   The 24-hour trading volume of BitMEX and OKEx totals approximately 445 million USD, up 50% from the previous day. High trading volume typically indicates that funds are flowing in and out rapidly, increasing short-term volatility. Newbies should be cautious about entering blindly during periods of high volatility and maintain position management.

3. Spot Trading Order Distribution
   Mainstream exchange data shows that the XRP / USD orders on Gate are concentrated at buy orders between 2.20 and 2.25 USD and sell orders between 2.30 and 2.35 USD. If the buy orders hold firmly at 2.20 USD, the bulls will have a strong willingness to cover; if the sell orders appear densely at 2.30 USD, it is necessary to guard against short-term fluctuations.

Investment Strategies and Risk Management

1. Short-term layout suggestions

   • Positioning: You can accumulate in batches in the range of 2.20 — 2.22 USD, with a reference stop-loss at 2.15 USD.
   • Profit target: If it breaks through $2.35 and confirms, the first target is $2.50, and then consider $2.63 based on market sentiment. Take profits in batches to lock in gains.
   • Observation range: If the price dips again to the 2.10 — 2.15 USD area, one can observe first or choose to make a small test position.

2. Medium to long-term strategy

   • Buy on dips: If XRP/USD falls to around 2.00 USD and shows signs of a bottom, you can gradually increase your position; pay long-term attention to the implementation of DeFi and cross-border payment application scenarios.
   • Holding period: Mid-term holders can set 2.63 — 2.80 USD as the main exit zone, and if the market continues to rise, they can adjust the take-profit position accordingly.

3. Risk Warning

   • Key support lost: If it falls below 2.15 USD and continues to close below 2.10 USD, caution is needed for a further pullback to 2.00 USD or lower.
   • Regulatory Risk: If the SEC roundtable fails to release clear positive signals, or even issues tightening regulatory statements, it may lead to short-term panic selling in the market.
   • Market volatility intensifies: The global macro environment remains uncertain. If significant policy changes or black swan events occur, XRP / USD may change direction rapidly, requiring flexible position adjustments.

Outlook for future trends

In summary, the recent XRP / USD price has been fluctuating in the range of 2.20 — 2.35 USD. Short-term bulls are focusing on whether a breakout from the descending wedge can lead to a surge in volume. If it breaks above 2.35 USD and stabilizes, the target will point to 2.50 — 2.63 USD. However, if the support at 2.20 USD fails, bulls need to be cautious of further declines to 2.00 USD. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory developments following the SEC cryptocurrency roundtable on June 9, as well as international capital flows and changes in global macro policies, to timely adjust their positions and strategies, maintain risk thresholds, and achieve reasonable returns amid XRP / USD fluctuations.