Will Bitcoin consolidate until the Mid-Autumn Festival? See what analysts from CryptoQuant and Matrixport have to say.

Bitcoin has recently returned to a consolidation rhythm, with CryptoQuant indicating that the current crypto market cycle is extending, as long-term holders and institutional funds are rewriting the autumn 2025 market. (Background: The chairman of the Swiss National Bank again rejected 'including Bitcoin in reserves'! The focus remains on stabilizing the Swiss franc, but the constitutional amendment is still under signature) (Additional background: Nakiki SE plans to raise 10 million euros to buy Bitcoin, aiming to become Germany's first publicly listed company with pure BTC reserves) Is the timing rhythm of the cryptocurrency market slowing down? On the 29th, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant released a report indicating that the crypto market, which used to peak within a year, is gradually extending to around three years. CryptoQuant senior analyst Crypto Dan bluntly stated that the next peak may only appear in the fourth quarter of 2025, meaning investors will face a longer but also more stable climbing period. Crypto Market Cycle Slows, Uptrend Expected in Fall 2025 "Looking at the percentage of Bitcoin held for over a year ( based on realized market cap ), past cycles ( Phase 1 and 2) show that the market surged sharply and reached its peak. However, in the current phase ( 3), the slope… pic.twitter.com/jTL139wa8c — CryptoQuant.com ( @cryptoquant_com ) August 29, 2025 The slowing cycle indicates market maturity. The report reviews history, stating that in the early years, Bitcoin's rise was rapid, with cycles lasting only about 24 to 28 months; the latest data shows it has now extended to 33 to 37 months, with independent observer Colin Talks Crypto even quantifying a '35-month rhythm.' Crypto Dan summarized it in one sentence: the extension of the crypto market cycle indicates that capital inflows and macro fluctuations are flattening the rise. The Return on Investment decreases with the cycle, indicating that assets are maturing. Bitcoin's dependence on Halving is decreasing, synchronizing instead with market and macroeconomic factors, with an increasingly evident linkage to the global liquidity cycle. Matrixport: New catalysts needed before the Mid-Autumn Festival Matrixport announced its September market outlook, stating that Bitcoin is in a critical period of technical and macro interweaving: August saw a rare pullback, with a monthly drop of 3.9%, significantly lower than the historical average of +0.5% during the same period. Historical seasonality shows September is generally bearish, with four out of the past ten years ending in declines, averaging a drop of 2.5%. This month's U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and Federal Reserve interest rate meetings will become critical variables, with uncertainty in policies and data heating up. Even if interest rates are cut, it may not lead to the expected rebound. At this stage, Bitcoin is hovering in a critical range between bulls and bears, with most capital choosing to wait and see. Matrixport estimates that the consolidation will continue for another 2 to 3 weeks, needing to wait for new catalytic factors to break the range, to determine whether this round of fluctuation is indeed a phase of consolidation or a precursor to a trend reversal. This week #MoT 投研 – 2025/08/29 比特币的盘整，是否将延续至九月 ？# Matrixport #比特币 # on-chain data #加密市场 # macro outlook #机构资金流 # seasonality #The Federal Reserve pic.twitter.com/38ooPHQMlJ — Matrixport official Mandarin ( @Matrixport_CN ) August 29, 2025 Long-term holders become stabilizers The report focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTH). Between 2024 and 2025, they have realized profits of about 3.27 million BTC, which is higher than in 2021 but lower than the 3.93 million in 2017. CryptoQuant interprets this as planned adjustment rather than panic selling. The article emphasizes: this indicates that the market has entered the late stage of the cycle, but the stabilizing sentiment remains. Currently, about 55 million wallets are in profit, holding coins for an average of 4.4 years, indicating that the belief in 'digital gold' has not changed. At the same time, Strategy has again invested 1.1 billion USD to buy Bitcoin, along with net inflows from spot ETFs and regulatory clarification, continuously strengthening the willingness to accumulate long-term. Related reports Tether announces that it will issue USDT on the Bitcoin RGB protocol, with stablecoins truly integrating into the BTC ecosystem. Nakiki SE plans to raise 10 million euros to buy Bitcoin, aiming to become Germany's first publicly listed company with pure BTC reserves. 'Will Bitcoin consolidate until the Mid-Autumn Festival? See what analysts from CryptoQuant and Matrixport have to say.' This article was first published in BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media.