Polymarket Whale Takes a Risk: $15K Bet on a Bold 50 bps Fed Rate Cut

Financial markets are bracing for the next decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Most investors expect the standard scenario – a modest 25 basis point cut. But one trader on Polymarket is raising the stakes. Known online as JustWakingUp, this whale placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will surprise markets next week with a 50 basis point rate cut. If that unlikely outcome comes true, the payout would be enormous – $226,000.

Why Is This Bet So Bold? According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a 91% probability to a smaller 25 bps cut. The whale’s prediction is considered highly improbable by Wall Street. Yet the U.S. economy is sending signals that could justify such a move: 🔹 Weak August jobs report – fewer new jobs than expected

🔹 Bureau of Labor Statistics revision – U.S. created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year ending March 2025, the largest downward revision ever

🔹 Growing concerns of a potential recession These cracks in the economy are increasing pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively.

Smart Strategy or Reckless Gamble? Some analysts see this wager as a brilliant play on the risk-reward ratio, rather than a true market signal. Analyst Andrew Larick called it an “asymmetric bet.” For a trader who already secured more than $2 million in profits, losing $15,000 is insignificant. But if the Fed delivers a shock, a nearly quarter-million-dollar payout would be remarkable. Other commentators, however, caution against betting against Wall Street professionals, arguing that options traders and big banks usually have the most accurate read on Fed policy.

Big Names Back a Larger Cut Despite skepticism in the broader market, major institutions such as BlackRock and Standard Chartered have openly called for a more aggressive move, supporting the idea of a 50 bps cut in light of weak economic data and slowing momentum.

Data Could Tip the Scales The deciding factor will likely be this week’s economic data: Producer Price Index (PPI) – WednesdayConsumer Price Index (CPI) – Thursday If both show cooling inflation, the case for a larger rate cut will gain traction. That would not only validate the Polymarket whale’s bold bet, but could also push stocks and Bitcoin higher, as looser monetary policy fuels liquidity.

High-Stakes Game For now, the whale’s position is only slightly in profit. The real outcome hinges on whether the Fed delivers a shock next week. If it does, JustWakingUp could walk away with one of the boldest wins in recent market history. If not, the $15,000 bet will vanish quietly – with Wall Street shrugging it off.

#Fed , #fomc , #Polymarket , #stockmarket , #bitcoin

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