The probability of an economic recession in America in 2025 is 40% due to the prolonged trade war.

According to market analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, Nic Puckrin, the U.S. economy has a 40% chance of falling into recession by 2025 amid prolonged trade wars and macroeconomic instability.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Puckrin stated that although a recession is not a certain scenario, the current economic instability will create an unfavorable environment for risky assets like cryptocurrencies. He commented:

"President Trump and his advisors do not completely dismiss the possibility of a recession, which means it could certainly happen. I don't think that's a highly likely scenario, but the odds have increased significantly."

Puckrin emphasized that President Donald Trump did not intentionally cause a recession, but the policies of his administration, such as cutting federal jobs and reducing spending to balance the budget, could lead to a recession as an inevitable consequence.

Macroeconomic instability is considered the main reason for the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to the European market in search of better opportunities and to avoid risks from the US economy, Puckrin shared.

DXY, the index tracking the strength of the US dollar, fell sharply in March 2025. Source: TradingView## Trade war drives Bitcoin prices down

The tariffs imposed by President Trump on America's trade partners have sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, causing altcoin prices to plummet and Bitcoin (BTC) to adjust 24% from a peak of over $109,000 on January 20, down to $83,000.

Concerns about a prolonged trade war have also shifted market sentiment into an extremely fearful state — completely opposite to the excitement after Trump’s re-election in November 2025 and the inauguration on January 20.

Bitcoin prices are struggling in the context of headlines about trade wars and are currently trading below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Source: TradingView According to analyst Nicolai Sondergaard from Nansen Research, the cryptocurrency market will continue to face pressure from tariff policies until April 2025. However, if countries reach an agreement to end tariffs or the Trump administration eases its stance, the market will recover.

The founder of 10x Research, Markus Thielen, recently stated that Bitcoin reached its price bottom in March 2025 when President Trump began to ease his tough trade tariff statements, signaling a potential price reversal.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any decisions. We do not take responsibility for your investment decisions.

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Thạch Sanh

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