"The Big Short" Michael Burry closes all positions this season! Why is he turning to short Nvidia and Chinese tech stocks?

Legendary investor Michael Burry Q1 2025 Holdings changed drastically, liquidated stocks turned bearish on Chinese technology stocks, and Estée Lauder became the only one to hold on. (Synopsis: Big short sale McBerry: "Audit" of exchange reserve certificates is meaningless) (Background supplement: Legendary big short Jim Chanos shouts "short micro strategy, long Bitcoin", arbitrage crazy ideas ignite Wall Street debate on crypto valuations) McBerry (Michael Burry), this famous for the movie "Big Short" (The Big Short) Legendary investors have always been in the spotlight for their ability to forecast the market accurately. With accurate prediction of the 2008 housing crash, early insight into GameStop's potential and rally in Chinese tech stocks, and even a successful prediction of post-pandemic inflation, Berry's investment initiatives have always sparked widespread market discussion. In recent years, he has chosen to keep a low profile and rarely speak publicly. Until recently, the (Q1 2025) 13F position filing for the first quarter of 2025 released by Scion Asset Management, which once again exposed the major correction of his portfolio "almost all stocks" and bet heavily on put options, sending a strong signal to the market. McBerry Q1 2025 Position Turnaround According to Scion Asset Management's latest Q1 2025 Q13F filing, McBerry's portfolio has seen significant changes. The documents show that Berry cleared almost all of his stock holdings, retaining and increasing his holdings of Estee Lauder ( Estée Lauder ) stocks. At the same time, he has built a large put position, supplementing that the total portfolio value could increase significantly from $77.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $199.2 million in the first quarter of 2025, while the number of holdings has plummeted from 13 to seven. The investor, known for successfully predicting the 2008 housing bubble, the GameStop short market and post-pandemic inflation, has once again attracted a lot of attention from the market. China's tech stocks fall out of favor It's worth noting that Berry's attitude toward Chinese tech stocks has changed dramatically. In the fourth quarter of 2024 and before, he was long-term bullish on Alibaba ( Alibaba ), JD.com ( JD.com ), Baidu ( companies such as Baidu ) and PDD Holdings ( Pinduoduo ), which at the time considered these "stable companies" whose value was only temporarily depressed by the overall state of China's economy, and expected that the economic recovery would bring upside. However, in just three months, Berry completely reversed its stance and switched heavily to betting heavily on put options at these companies. This shift is related to the recent sharp escalation of the US-China trade war and changes in the geopolitical environment. After Liberation Day, current US President Donald Trump launched a widespread trade conflict, imposing tariffs of up to 67% on a range of imports, triggering retaliatory tariffs from China, which the US subsequently raised again. For Berry, these developments have clearly changed the situation, as these Chinese tech stocks are no longer purely corporate, but "embroiled in a political battle", where tariffs could dampen consumer demand, squeeze corporate profits and pose a host of regulatory challenges. Coupled with potential delisting threats from the US, possible capital controls, and the risk of continued negative sentiment towards Chinese equities in the West, the potential upside for these companies suddenly becomes unattractive. If you are pessimistic about the outlook for global trade or worried about an escalating geopolitical conflict, Chinese technology stocks are naturally the main short-term targets. From Berry's put position, this seems to be exactly his view. In addition to Chinese tech stocks, Berry has also increased its bearish holdings on Nvidia ( Huida ) and Trip.com Group, and sees an overheated pullback in the travel industry. Among them, the potential exposure to Nvidia's put option position is reported to be as high as $98 million, and the main tourism business of Shanghai-based Trip.com Group, another Chinese-owned company, is also likely to be affected by the trade war. Estee Lauder ( Estee Lauder ) the only stock to be retained and increased as McBerry aggressively liquidated his portfolio. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, he held 200,000 shares of Estee Lauder worth approximately $13.2 million. Estée Lauder's recent performance has not been satisfactory, its share price has fallen sharply by about 82% since its peak at the end of 2021, revenue has continued to decline, and net profit has even turned negative, mainly due to weak demand in Asia Pacific, particularly China, and disruptions in the travel retail channel. However, Estée Lauder has embarked on a comprehensive restructuring plan, including layoffs of up to 7,000 employees and the implementation of several cost-saving measures. Management has also set a target of increasing operating profit by $1.44 billion by 2026. In addition, the company's leadership is undergoing changes, with long-serving CEOs stepping down. McBerry's investment in Estée Lauder seems to confirm his consistent contrarian investment philosophy. He may see Estée Lauder as a smoke-ass (cigar butt) opportunity that is grossly undervalued by the market, betting that the company, which owns many powerful global brands such as MAC, La Mer, Clinique and more, will turn around after a significant stock price correction as restructuring plans move forward and new management is in place. The move is in line with his strategy of looking for "generational opportunities," buying women's consumption, luxury conglomerates at significant discounts, and betting on industries where concerns about its current predicament could be over-amplified. Interpreting Berry McBerry's aggressive liquidation and turn bearish in the first quarter of 2025, particularly targeting Chinese technology stocks, provides an intriguing perspective for the market to watch the legendary investor's shift in strategy. However, when interpreting Berry's 13F filing, it is important to be mindful of its inherent limitations. First, 13F filings are usually not disclosed until about 45 days after the end of the quarter, which means that this position information is "slightly outdated" at the time of publication. In the event of rapid market movements, it is highly likely that Berry has adjusted or even closed these positions. Although there are elements of value investing in Berry's investment philosophy, its trading style tends to be closer to that of short-term traders, unlike investment gurus like Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) who pursue long-term holding strategies. For Berry, the shift in geopolitical circumstances is enough to prompt him to quickly adjust his strategy, and even companies he has previously been bullish on for a long time may flip around for a short time. Readers are reminded that if they want to refer to his investments, they should view these public information with a prudent eye, as a reference signal reflecting market sentiment and potential risks, rather than a direct investment operation guide, and should combine other more real-time sources of information, as well as their own risk tolerance and investment objectives, to make sound decisions. Related reports GameStop Short Legend: How did a KOL lead retail investors to make $40 million in Wall Street shorts? 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