1️⃣ Technical Overview

Price range trend: Currently consolidating in the $106k–$107k range, primarily oscillating in the short term.

Moving Average (MA/EMA):
The daily level EMA9/EMA21 has formed a golden cross, creating bullish support, and the short-term trend remains strong.

All key moving averages (MA5/10/20/50/100/200) are strengthening together, forming a "strong buy" signal.

2️⃣ Momentum Indicator Analysis

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The daily RSI is around 65, close to the overbought area, but not seriously overbought; the short-term 30-minute RSI is about 56, still has room for upward movement.

MACD:
Both the daily and 4-hour timeframes show a bullish golden cross, and the histogram is gradually increasing in volume, indicating strengthening upward momentum.

Supertrend & DMI:
4-hour Supertrend bullish, with +DI stronger than -DI in the DMI indicator, indicating that buyer strength is dominant.

3️⃣ Support and Resistance Levels
First support ~ $104,000–$104,300 daily EMA band and previous low point range, support is relatively solid +5 key support ~ $100,000 psychological level, also the lower boundary area of the descending channel. First resistance ~ $106,200–$106,500 61.8%–76.4% Fib retracement level + upper boundary of the channel. Secondary resistance ~ $107,000 interest rate cut trend line resistance level, if broken and confirmed, the target will point to $110,000–$112,000.

4️⃣ Graphics and Structural Forms

Daily line triangular convergence pattern: Prices continuously converge at high points, forming a triangular range where both upward breakouts and downward pullbacks may coexist.

Long-term downtrend channel (Daily to Weekly): Since May, the price has been hovering within the channel, currently close to the upper middle line of the channel, and may encounter resistance in the short term.

5️⃣ Macroeconomic and News Factors

Geopolitical fluctuations: The repeated situation in the Middle East has led to increased volatility in Bitcoin, with a precedent of a short-term pullback to $98k reminding the market of the risks.

Capital structure: ETF funds continue to flow in, and institutional participation maintains a bullish logic, but the overall market risk-off sentiment still exists.

6️⃣ Today's Strategy Suggestions

Aggressive bulls:
You can place light long positions in the range of $104,000–$104,300;

Stop loss set below $103,500, target locked at above $106,500 → $107,000;

If it breaks $107,000, consider placing a buy order, targeting $110k–$112k.

Prudent Observer:
It is recommended to wait for confirmation to enter after breaking $107,000 to avoid repeated fluctuations in the triangular range;

Or wait for a pullback to around $104k to test the EMA support again as a buying opportunity.

Defensive Strategy:
If it drops below $104,000, it may accelerate the pullback to the $100,000 range, and one should decisively cut losses or reduce positions.

7️⃣ Summary (Today's Conclusion)

BTC is currently in a period of range compression, with short-term pressure concentrated between $106.5k and $107k. A breakout is possible, but there are also risks involved.

The technology is biased towards bullishness, with strong momentum, but one must be wary of significant resistance levels and potential disruptions from geopolitical/macroeconomic risks.

It is recommended to combine a staggered entry strategy with strict stop-loss measures to prevent losses caused by adverse fluctuations.