The Trading Philosophy of AI Investor Timo: How to Find Alpha in the Web3 AI Space

Timo is an investor focused on the AI field, with extensive experience in both Web2 and Web3. He started engaging with cryptocurrencies in 2017, experiencing the ups and downs of contract trading, and ultimately found his direction in on-chain trading.

Timo's trading strategy mainly focuses on two-phase market conditions, looking for projects with potential returns of over ten times. He emphasizes the importance of position management, with no more than 15% invested in a single project. This strategy has currently achieved a win rate of over 90%.

Investment Opportunities in the Web3 AI Field

Timo believes that the development of AI in Web3 basically follows the trend of Web2 AI. He analyzed several key links from the perspective of the industry chain:

1. Protocol layer: It is necessary to solve the problem of intelligent interaction between Agents.

2. Model Layer: Specialized domain models and optimization of inference costs hold great potential.

3. Data Layer: The selection, cleaning, and labeling of high-quality data is crucial.

4. Tool Layer: The open platform allows the invocation of various tools, which may become a hotspot.

5. Application Layer: The application of AI Agents in Web3, especially the AI + DeFi direction, is worth paying attention to.

Two-Stage Trading Strategy

Timo's two-stage trading strategy includes two steps: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

Four essential elements of fundamental analysis:

1. Narrative: Product positioning determines the project ceiling. Focus on high-frequency usage, liquidity entry, and infrastructure-type projects.

2. Control of Funds: Strongly manipulated markets often have a longer lifespan and greater imaginative potential.

3. Products and Technology: The market is increasingly focusing on substantive content.

4. Team Background: Look for "regular troops", verify resumes and research achievements.

Market Analysis:

Pay attention to the operations of market makers, as there are usually two bottoms suitable for building positions. Relevant information can be obtained by monitoring market maker wallets.

Risk Control

1. Conduct thorough research: Collect first-hand information and communicate directly with developers.

2. Positioning and Position Management: Be patient, do not rush to fully invest, and do not overly rely on technical analysis.

AI Project Valuation Methods

1. Comparable Valuation Method: Refer to similar projects, but be aware that new projects may break existing rules.

2. Cognitive Valuation Method: Valuation of a brand new project based on personal understanding and market response.

Take Profit Strategy

Timo has set three valuation targets: the first stage, the second stage, and the final valuation. 30% of the position will be sold upon reaching the first and second targets.

The Path to Long-Term Success

1. Shrink the self: Let go of emotions and external noise.
2. Stay curious and open: adapt to market changes.
3. Learn to review and reflect: avoid repeating mistakes.
4. Accept opinions and doubts: absorb valuable information from the outside.

Timo emphasized that it is crucial to understand the rules of the game before participating when entering new fields. Only by fully understanding the market operation mechanisms can one seize opportunities and achieve sustained success in the rapidly developing area of Web3 AI.