Bitcoin breaks through 100,000 USD, market focuses on the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) to play out two major trends.

On July 3, a researcher from a certain platform pointed out in a column that Bitcoin recently rose to $109,500, mainly driven by a 10% increase in open interest (OI) in the futures market to $3.2 billion, with significant new long positions funding and a rebound in market momentum.

On the macro front, the U.S. "small non-farm" ADP data unexpectedly fell by 33,000, boosting the probability of a rate cut in July to 27.4%, and the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September reached 64%-72%. The options market Put/Call ratio rose to 0.72, with $104,000 as a key support level and $114,000 as short-term resistance.

The researcher pointed out that the market is playing out two paths: if the non-farm data continues to be weak, it may trigger a new round of Bitcoin rise; conversely, if the data is strong, it may lead to a technical pullback. The current market is in a sensitive period of directional choice.