Why hasn't Bitcoin been able to surpass the peak of $112,000? Analysts speak out.

Since reaching a three-week high of 110,300 USD on Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin has continuously formed lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour timeframe. As the trading week gradually comes to a close, Bitcoin has yet to surpass the historical high of 112,000 USD.

BTC/USD Hourly Chart | Source: TradingView## What is holding Bitcoin below the 112,000 USD mark?

In the past 48 hours, Bitcoin has increased by 5%, reaching a daily peak of 110,392 USD on Thursday. However, despite this upward trend, the ability to surpass the historical peak of 112,000 USD remains limited due to a lack of real buying power from the spot market.

The "Spot volume delta" indicator – measuring the net difference between buying and selling volume in the spot market – shows that net buying pressure on exchanges is still negative, even as Bitcoin attempts to break out. This reflects a lack of bullish momentum, which could lead to a correction or accumulation if price pushes mainly originate from the derivatives market without support from the spot market.

"Bitcoin is breaking out, but where is the buying power from the spot market?" market data company Swissblock Technologies posted on X.

"Without real demand, the breakout phases are just 'vaporized fuel'. There needs to be actual buyers to sustain the upward momentum."

The Spot volume delta indicator of Bitcoin | Source: SwissblockK33 Research notes that spot trading volume is typically significantly lower during the period from June to October, with July being one of the quietest months – accounting for only 6.1% of the total annual trading volume. This quiet trading season may pose a barrier to Bitcoin's efforts to break its peak in the coming weeks. K33 Research stated:

"Although July 2025 may see many driving factors such as Mr. Trump's budget bill, tariff decisions, or deadlines for issuing cryptocurrency decrees, according to seasonal cycles, the market may still fall into a 'calm' state with low volume and weak volatility, despite the flurry of news."

Trading volume percentage by month in the year | Source: K33 Research## Bitcoin price may "pause to rise" in the short term

The rise to the 110,000 USD range of Bitcoin has ignited FOMO sentiment within the community as retail investors begin to expect even higher prices, according to data from Santiment.

"The cryptocurrency community has officially shifted from a fear mentality (FUD) to excitement (FOMO) after Bitcoin reached 109,800 USD," Santiment noted.

However, the market sentiment index is currently in the "greed" zone at 73 - a contrary signal from an investment perspective. History shows that when retail investors become overly optimistic, the market often adjusts or stagnates as institutional investors take profits when the market is overbought.

If accompanied by high trading volume and strong speculative orders, this bullish sentiment can temporarily inflate prices and then quickly lead to a correction.

The community expects the price of Bitcoin to rise higher | Source: SantimentThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Bitcoin is in the near overbought zone on 4 out of 6 time frames, indicating that the price is entering a depletion zone – a signal for the possibility of a short-term correction.

Cryptocurrency Market RSI Heatmap | Source: CoinGlassAlthough Bitcoin is still trying to break through the 110,000 USD mark, the current excitement indicates that a pause or accumulation is likely to occur. The market may need to "cool off" retail sentiment before continuing the upward trend.

Santiment commented:

"Prices often move contrary to the behavior of retail investors, so don't be surprised if the market pauses its upward trend while greed is on the rise."

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