From MicroStrategy to Metaplanet: Is the premium myth of Bitcoin treasury enterprises heading towards a high-risk leverage cycle?

This article is based on the research report "Why Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies Trading at Such High Premiums to NAV?" published by Galaxy Insights research analyst Will Owens on July 1, 2025, and incorporates market observer Ethan Yang's commentary and analysis on future risks.

The premium logic of Bitcoin vault stocks: it's not just BTC, but also capital leverage.

Galaxy Insights researcher Will Owens pointed out that, for example, Strategy (MicroStrategy) has transformed the premium of its stock price into a source of funds for purchasing Bitcoin through convertible bonds and ATM equity financing. When the stock price is higher than the BTC NAV per share, the company can "gain issuance" instead of diluting shareholders.

This model forms a positive cycle:

High stock price → Financing → Buying coins → Strengthening narrative → Supporting high stock price

But it also poses a potential risk: once the premium disappears, the entire leveraged structure may collapse quickly.

( Bitcoin valuation new system works, Strategy quarterly profit breaks 10 billion dollars, brokerages set target price at 590 USD )

Metaplanet: The highest transparency high-risk experiment?

The Owens report emphasizes that Metaplanet provides high transparency and increases investor trust through mechanisms such as "on-chain reserve proof," "real-time BTC Dashboard," and "BTC yield."

Metaplanet's Bitcoin Dashboard displays BTC holdings per share and diluted BTC yield in real-time, with transparency that is rare among global treasury-type companies.

Despite the information being public, the inherent risk remains: what investors are actually purchasing is a "leveraged engine that continuously issues bonds and increases capital."

(Metaplanet is doubling down! Japanese companies are crazy about buying Bitcoin, proposing dedicated metrics BTC Yield, BTC Gain, BTC ¥ Gain)

Commentary: Ethan Yang's Warning on Systemic Risk

Ethan Yang pointed out:

"These companies are not long-term value investors; instead, they create financial structures with high price-to-earnings ratios and exit opportunities through board control and traditional financing methods. The next liquidity crisis may be triggered by these companies."

He particularly emphasized the following risks:

When the price of Bitcoin drops significantly: the net worth of enterprises will rapidly decline, and original shareholders are unwilling to increase capital because the costs are not low, and their ability to withstand the decline is limited.

When Bitcoin is in a long-term consolidation: the premium returns to normal, ATM financing will no longer be beneficial, and may even lead to dilution, forming a vicious cycle.

"The next cryptocurrency market 'death spiral' may not start from DeFi or exchanges, but rather from these leveraged vault companies."

Emotions replay, risks follow closely.

The high premium reflects a collective sentiment: we are not just buying BTC, we are buying "companies that have the power to continuously increase their BTC holdings." However, this path may lead to two outcomes:

Long-term bull market: These companies may transform into the next generation of giants.

Consolidation or bear market: they could become the systemic risk trigger for the next LUNA/FTX.

As Matthew Sigel of VanEck stated: "Once the premium disappears, the capital increase shifts from strategic to predatory." This statement is worth remembering for every investor chasing these types of stocks.

This article From MicroStrategy to Metaplanet: The Premium Myth of Bitcoin Treasury Enterprises, Is It Heading Towards a High-Risk Leverage Cycle? Originally appeared in Chain News ABMedia.