Year-End Summary and New Year Outlook of a Web3 Entrepreneur

The year 2024 is a turning point for the Web3 industry. Overall, the development of this year can be summarized in four aspects: moving from niche to mainstream, from disorder to regulation, from stagnation to prosperity, and from stability to transformation. Below, I will share some thoughts and outlook for the future based on several representative events.

From Niche to Mainstream: Bitcoin ETF Approval Opens the Path to the Popularization of Crypto Assets

The most significant change in the crypto industry in 2024 is the upgrade from a niche product to an asset class with widespread value. This transformation is primarily driven by two landmark events: first, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024; second, the election of a new crypto-friendly president on November 6, 2024. These two events have had a noticeable impact on Bitcoin's price, pushing it up from $30,000 to $60,000 and then to $100,000.

The direct impact of this transformation is the increase in capital liquidity, which is beneficial for the rise in prices of risk assets. However, unlike the bull market in 2021, the motivation for capital inflow in this round of bull market has changed. In 2021, it was mainly due to the deregulated nature of crypto assets that brought higher capital efficiency, while in 2024, it is due to new interest groups actively exerting political influence to promote the adoption of cryptocurrencies through political means.

This transition from "niche" to "mainstream" has profoundly influenced the motivations for capital inflow. Beyond speculation, more people view assets like Bitcoin as "store of value" and "inflation hedge" tools. This shift in perception has reduced the cyclicality and volatility of crypto assets, providing a more solid value support. Although currently, only a few blue-chip assets like Bitcoin are primarily benefiting, the entire crypto market will benefit to some extent.

For practitioners, this transformation has brought about a positive change in mindset. When introducing their industry to outsiders, they can now do so with greater confidence. This will also promote talent inflow and reduce costs in areas such as entrepreneurship, recruitment, and cross-industry collaboration.

Looking ahead to 2025, discussions about the value of cryptocurrency assets represented by Bitcoin will be more positive. Attention should be paid to the following aspects:

• Progress of relevant legislation on Bitcoin reserves at the national, regional, organizational, and corporate levels.
• Relevant remarks from key figures with political influence
• The allocation of Bitcoin in the balance sheets of publicly listed companies in the United States

From Disorder to Regulation: The Global Crypto Regulatory Framework is Gradually Improving, and Web3 Applications Have Legal Basis

For a long time, a core feature of the cryptocurrency industry has been the censorship resistance brought about by decentralization and anonymity. This provided value support for the early development of the industry but also led to issues such as fraud and money laundering. In the future, the industry will make adjustments in this regard, moving from disorder to regulation. This shift is accompanied by the gradual improvement of the global sovereign state's cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

In 2024, after the new president takes office and implements expansionary policies, along with the change of the SEC chairman, a more relaxed and inclusive regulatory framework is to be expected. Based on the recent judicial progress of cases such as Ripple and Tornado Cash, the introduction of this framework is not far off.

This will make the expansion of Web3 business scenarios more evidence-based, without having to bear excessive potential legal risks. The following aspects need to be focused on in 2025:

• The judgment results of other litigation cases
• The proposal and advancement of relevant legislation
• Changes in SEC personnel appointments
• Remarks and views of key decision-makers

In terms of potential new business scenarios, the following two directions are worth paying attention to:

1. Ce-DeFi: Connecting traditional finance and crypto assets, enhancing capital efficiency. This includes innovations from traditional finance to on-chain (, such as MicroStrategy, as well as from on-chain to traditional finance ), like RWA, Usual Money, etc. (.

2. The application of DAO in off-chain entity business management: With the relaxation of regulations, more traditional enterprises may adopt the DAO model for internal governance to obtain cheaper financial services.

From Stagnation to Prosperity: Focus on Three Key Directions for Web3 Business Development

In 2024, the traditional Web3 business hotspots underwent significant changes. In the first half of the year, the LRT market, represented by EigenLayer, showed signs of industry sluggishness, with capital huddling together for warmth, focusing on a few infrastructure tracks with great potential but longer implementation timelines.

As the market environment improves in the middle of the year, the focus gradually shifts to the application layer represented by TON Mini App. Compared to infrastructure, the application layer offers more target choices, lower development costs, and shorter landing cycles, making it favored by capital.

In the second half of the year, as the Federal Reserve begins its interest rate cut cycle and VC coins face a crisis of trust, the market quickly becomes inflated. Capital is heavily chasing short-term high-return projects such as Meme coins, as well as launching platforms like Pumpfun and emerging tools like AI Agents.

Looking ahead to 2025, traditional Web3 businesses will evolve according to the bubble cycle development model:

1. A more innovative grand narrative: capital chasing high-growth sectors, seeking vast imaginative space. As long as it makes sense, it could become a target for speculation.

2. More stable business revenue: The valuation of some mature tracks has returned to reasonable levels, and the pursuit of real income will become the main theme. The DeFi and Ce-DeFi sectors are worth paying attention to, and the potential of the interest rate trading market is enormous.

3. A more balanced interest game model: The traditional VC coin model faces a trust crisis and needs to explore better financing and profit distribution models. HyperLiquid's innovation is worth studying.

From Stability to Change: Huge Uncertainty Brings Escape Opportunities for Risk Assets

The main theme of 2025 will be the significant changes in the economic and cultural fields triggered by political reform. The entire process is filled with uncertainties brought about by the collapse of the old order, including aspects such as government debt, monetary policy, social values, and international relations.

These uncertainties will lead to significant fluctuations in the risk market. If the industry is positively driven, this volatility will be an opportunity; otherwise, it is a risk.

It is worth noting that the mainstream political orientation in the technology sector may change. Some big names who entered during the last bull market may try to inflate the prices of relevant assets as much as possible during the interim period before the new president officially takes office, in order to manage their own risk assets. This could trigger a wave of "panic selling".

From this perspective, the NFT market may迎来 a second spring in 2025. Combined with emerging speculative narratives like AI Agents, NFTs may rejuvenate.

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