Stablecoins Embrace a Supercycle, Dollar Mint Tax May Come to an End

Against the backdrop of accelerated changes in the global financial landscape, the cryptocurrency stablecoin market is ushering in a new round of development opportunities. As the fiat currency system faces challenges, on-chain stablecoins, especially interest-bearing stablecoin (YBS), are expected to achieve rapid growth.

The current stablecoin market is still primarily dollar-denominated and fully reserved. However, in the future, non-dollar and partially reserved stablecoins may become mainstream. This trend reflects the market's pursuit of capital efficiency and a reflection on the dominance of the dollar.

The trade policy of the Trump administration is shaking the global currency status of the dollar. Tariff barriers and exchange rate fluctuations have led countries to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar is shifting from a safe-haven asset to a risk asset. This change could end the seigniorage benefits that the U.S. has long enjoyed and accelerate the collapse of the fiat currency system.

The fragmented global trade landscape has instead provided opportunities for cryptocurrencies. In the coming period, competition among stablecoins will continue, becoming an important tool for cross-border payments and arbitrage.

The current crypto market is in an "inverted" state - volatile assets lack sufficient corresponding stablecoins. This provides room for YBS to develop, converting the volatility of cryptocurrencies into stable returns. However, challenges still remain in actual operation.

Ethena's USDe is a relatively successful attempt at an illegal currency reserve stablecoin. Its hedging model combines on-chain assets and centralized exchanges, attempting to mimic the US dollar system. However, USDe still struggles to gain widespread adoption in trading and payment scenarios.

The essence of YBS's yield is a customer acquisition cost. To maintain a high yield, more users need to hold it as a dollar equivalent rather than just pursuing yield. Currently, the YBS yield on Ethereum mainly comes from Ethena and Pendle, which has significantly decreased compared to the past.

The future focus of YBS development is on:

1. The non-dollarization of native yields, such as staking pure on-chain assets like BTC/ETH/SOL;
2. Integrate with more DeFi protocols to form a "Lego" combination;
3. Explore payment products, but face challenges in compliance and scaling.

Overall, the stablecoin market is迎来新一轮发展机遇. However, to truly achieve breakthroughs, progress is still needed in technology, applications, and regulation.