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The economy starts strong in 2024, and the crypto market welcomes new opportunities for ETF.
The economic performance at the beginning of 2024 is impressive, and the market welcomes new opportunities.
At the beginning of 2024, the U.S. economy is showing a strong momentum. Although a slight rise in inflation may delay the interest rate cut, the impressive economic data has injected confidence into the markets and consumers. In January, U.S. stocks continued their upward trend, reaching new highs, with tech stocks, especially those related to artificial intelligence, becoming the focus again, but Tesla is facing its first decline in gross margin in many years. The Asia-Pacific stock market performed well, while European stocks remained stable. The Bitcoin ETF was approved as scheduled, but due to some investors' selling pressure, the crypto market is under short-term pressure. As the selling pressure weakens, the market is gradually stabilizing and showing signs of recovery.
The U.S. non-farm employment data for December, released at the beginning of the year, significantly exceeded expectations, with particularly notable job growth in the private sector, adding positive factors for the start of the new year. However, the hot job market has also raised concerns about inflation. The CPI in December rose by 3.4% year-on-year, higher than expected and far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Although inflation has rebounded, the market generally believes that the likelihood of interest rate hikes is low, and only the timing of rate cuts may be delayed. Currently, the market expects that rate cuts may not begin until mid-year.
The yield on the US ten-year Treasury bonds showed a steady upward trend in January, reflecting market expectations of rising inflation. In addition, the manufacturing PMI hit a 16-month high, and the services PMI also performed well, indicating an improving business environment. The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter was 3.3%, with an annual growth rate of 2.5%, both exceeding market expectations. The consumer confidence index also reached a new high in a year and a half, further confirming the positive momentum of the economy.
In the stock market, the S&P 500 index followed the Dow Jones index to reach a record high, while the Nasdaq Composite index is only about 5% away from its new high. Tech stocks have once again become the focus of the market, with leading companies in the field of artificial intelligence continuously setting new price highs. However, Tesla is facing challenges due to intensified competition in the global electric vehicle market, as its fourth-quarter delivery volume has been surpassed for the first time by a Chinese company, and its gross profit has also seen a decline for the first time in years.
The Asia-Pacific market has performed remarkably, with India's Bombay Sensex 30 index reaching a new historical high, and Japan's Nikkei 225 index approaching its peak from 1990. Major European stock indices, on the other hand, are in a state of high-level fluctuations.
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a significant event, with 11 companies' Bitcoin spot ETFs approved for listing, providing ordinary investors with a more convenient channel for Bitcoin investment. However, the market did not rise as expected; instead, it was pressured by concentrated selling from some early investors. According to analysis, this wave of selling pressure mainly comes from early investors and does not represent the attitude of new incoming funds. As the selling pressure gradually weakens, the price of Bitcoin has begun to stabilize around $40,000 and has seen some recovery.
Despite the volatility experienced by the cryptocurrency market in the short term, the launch of ETFs has brought incremental funds to the market in the long run. This fundamental factor still supports a positive outlook for a bull market in 2024.
Overall, the economic data at the beginning of 2024 has performed excellently, the stock market is generally positive, and although there are fluctuations in the crypto market, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. In the current economic environment, the crypto market is expected to regain upward momentum after digesting short-term selling pressure. As time goes by, the market is likely to welcome more opportunities.