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This week, the financial markets will face a series of significant events that could trigger severe fluctuations. The Fed is set to hold a highly anticipated interest rate decision meeting, while a string of key economic data will also be released, including GDP, employment reports, and inflation indicators. These factors intertwine, creating an exceptionally tense market atmosphere.
Although it is widely expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, upcoming economic data may trigger a sudden shift in decision-making. Let's follow a few key forecasts:
1. The GDP growth rate for the second quarter, announced on Wednesday, is expected to be 2.4%, a significant improvement from the negative growth of 0.5% in the first quarter. However, this growth is mainly benefited from the narrowing of the trade deficit, which may obscure the actual state of the real economy.
2. The employment data for July released on Friday may show a slowdown in job growth. It is expected that new job positions will be less than in June, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%. This change is partly attributed to the fading impact of temporary hiring in the education sector.
3. The inflation data for June is expected to rise slightly, reflecting the ongoing impact of tariff policies on consumer prices, indicating that inflationary pressures are unlikely to ease quickly in the short term.
In this complex economic environment, the Fed is facing immense pressure in policy-making. The uncertainty of trade policies and the multitude of economic indicators make the outcome of this meeting unpredictable. Although the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, any unexpected performance of key data could lead the Fed to adjust its policy stance.
In the coming week, investors need to closely follow the release of these economic indicators, as they not only affect short-term market trends but may also have a profound impact on the medium- to long-term economic outlook. During this period of uncertainty, market participants should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond to potential severe fluctuations.