ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-minute strategy analysis (based on data from July 28, 2025, 21:45)

Core logic: Bearish momentum explodes, shorting mainly at the resistance level of the rebound.

Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:

Closed at 3840.78 (drop -0.28%), with an amplitude of 0.71% (3831.61-3859.00), a long upper shadow confirms strong resistance at 3859.

Support: 3831.61 (intraday low), 3820 (psychological level); Resistance: 3850 (moving average resistance), 3859 (previous high).

Indicator Signal:

MACD Accelerated Death Cross: DIF(-9.83) crosses below DEA(-8.69), MACD bars expand to -8.27, bearish momentum is strong.

KDJ Oversold Divergence: K value (31.64) breaks below D value (37.16), J value (20.60) enters the oversold zone, beware of a short-term rebound.

Volume coordination: Trading volume of 97.2K is higher than the previous value, and the bearish volume increase is effective.

Low-risk strategy: short on pullback, stop loss on breakout
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):

The price retraced to the 3845-3850 range (38.2% Fibonacci level) without a significant breakout, along with KDJ's K value <35.

Target: 3831 → 3820 (previous low extension).

Stop Loss: 3855 (break above previous high +0.15% tolerance).

Long Position Defense Conditions (Secondary Strategy):

Breakout with volume exceeding 3855 (VOLUME >100K) and MACD bars narrowing, chase long to 3870.

Or it may quickly drop to stabilize at 3820-3825 (15-minute candle with a long lower shadow), with a short-term target of 3840.

Stop Loss: 3815 (below the intraday low).

Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 22:00-23:00 (Plenty of liquidity in the early session of the US market).

Holding time: ≤20 minutes, profit reaches 15-20 USD to take profit 50%.

Position management: ≤4% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥3:1 (stop loss $5, take profit $15).

Strategic Advantage: Use MACD + KDJ double short signals to enhance win rate; choose to enter at resistance levels during pullbacks, with controllable risk.
Risk warning: If the 3845 resistance level is not reached before 23:00, abandon the trade to avoid chasing shorts.

Action Summary:
① Priority short position: Short lightly at 3845, stop loss at 3855, target 3831→3820.
② Emergency Long Position: Breakthrough 3855 to chase long to 3870, or stabilize at 3820 to short long to 3840, with strict stop-loss. #Gate Launchpad IKA上线#