Orange Evening Interpretation 7.29

Yesterday's article mentioned that this week is a super macro week, gathering the FOMC interest rate meeting, PCE inflation data, major and minor non-farm employment data, the earnings reports of 4 out of the 7 technology giants, and most importantly, the deadline for tariff negotiations. Therefore, this week's market is destined for wild fluctuations.

Sure enough, there was a big correction in the market right at the start of the week, especially for altcoins, many of which fell by more than 10% in a broad downtrend. This further confirms that the current market is not at all an altcoin season. There is still no inflow of capital from outside the market; although many altcoins surged with Ethereum in the past two weeks, the liquidity issues remain unresolved. Once the market shows any signs of volatility, the active funds in altcoins will quickly withdraw. Therefore, we see that many altcoins have been severely oversold in every round of correction, and each rebound has only been symbolic, following the main market. For altcoins with such trends, do not hesitate; the later you change your position, the more you will lose. This round of the bull market is unlikely to see the previous scenario where all altcoins soared together. The funds are simply insufficient, and the existence of coin stocks means that external money can participate in the altcoin feast without needing to enter the crypto market. This means that the altcoin bull market similar to the past is likely to occur in the stock market or on-chain this time, and it is likely unrelated to the old altcoins on CEX. The ultimate outcome of these old altcoins can be referenced by the mainstream altcoins that emerged before 2015. Do you remember coins like Dotcoin, Futurecoin, Worldcoin, Domaincoin, and BitShares? They were all in the top ten or even top twenty at that time, but eventually, they were eliminated for failing to keep up with the times. Since the bull market in 2021 can be considered the strongest altcoin season in history, the higher they rose, the deeper they fell. This round may become a graveyard for the previous altcoins. Therefore, friends who are holding onto a lot of junk altcoins must change their positions in time. If you want stability, switch to Bitcoin or Ethereum. If you really cannot accept such low expected returns, you must also switch to altcoins above the five-tier level that I mentioned in my previous article, namely the leading AI/MEME, and the secondary leaders DEFI/RWA/public chains.

Although the altcoins have dropped significantly, the over-the-counter cryptocurrency stocks are still thriving. The BNB stock, which has been anticipated for a long time with CZ's investment, was finally announced last night. It is listed on a stock market named CEA with the stock code VAPE. YZI and 10x CAPITAL completed the shell acquisition with 500 million, and last night, VAPE's stock surged nearly 10x. Additionally, the new strategy for $sui, Mill City, raised 450 million, while the Sol strategy Upexi sold 500 million in stocks to buy coins. The hype strategy Hyperion added 108,000 new Hype tokens. Sun Ge rang the bell officially the day before yesterday, indicating that cryptocurrency stocks have become a mainstream narrative recognized by many traditional investors.

In addition, various listed companies in the United States, Europe, and Japan have begun to allocate Bitcoin. Many of these companies are in the medical beauty, pharmaceutical, and hairdressing industries. For stock market players, the stocks of these companies are like altcoins. Now you understand why Bitcoin has reached new highs while the altcoins in your hands are struggling, right? Because the coins you hold are simply not seen by outside funds. They want to achieve higher returns, so they focus on turning that stock into a coin stock. They don't even need to register a wallet or exchange account in the crypto space, nor do they need to go through the complex learning process of transferring or trading on-chain. Pharmaceuticals can be bought on commonly used stock trading software, and these may be the alt stocks that could surge. Moreover, from MSTR to COIN, HOOD to SBET, SRM, BMNR, and last night’s VAPE, coin stocks indeed behave like the previous altcoin seasons, with wild surges and drops. Experiencing the feeling of trading coins in the stock market is enough.