#ETH# #ETH

① Trend. A breakthrough at the 3830 line looks towards the 3890 line. But here's the problem: with today's garbage trend, can it break through the 3830 line? It probably can't. Some believe that this wave of decline might be a washout, and after the washout, it will directly soar. But I think this wave of decline is just a decline, and the rebound is just a rebound; it probably won't form an upward trend and effectively break through the 3830 line.
② Why has it moved this way instead of continuing to fluctuate upward or even reaching new highs? Firstly, there is a need for adjustment; the higher it goes, the more effort it takes. Although it's not particularly obvious, adjustments can happen in the middle, and we cannot decide this; it is determined by the big players. From the perspective of us retail investors, we can only see that the intensity of the adjustment is not high and is relatively limited. Secondly, the rise of $btc is not strong. If it were a bit more powerful, it should have gone up yesterday. It shouldn't still be fluctuating downward now.
The main resistance level above is around 3800, which is also a position where it is likely to encounter resistance and fall back down. If it breaks through and stabilizes here, the rhythm will basically be 3800——3830——3890, and at that time, it will be a bit painful. After all, my current view is still on the former.