Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: Futures leverage cools down, ten-year Whales start to take profits?

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to fluctuate within a narrow range after pulling back from its historical high, currently priced at $118,570, with a slight rise of 0.3% over the past 24 hours. On-chain data shows key changes: the enthusiasm for leverage in the futures market has significantly cooled, which may be a sign of a healthy bull run brewing; meanwhile, some early whale addresses that have held for over ten years are beginning to take profits, which, while normal cashing out behavior, still warrants attention for short-term selling pressure. Analysts believe that if speculative pressure continues to ease, BTC is likely to build momentum to break through the previous high of 123K.

[High Price Fluctuation: BTC Current Price 118,570 USD] The world's largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a pullback consolidation phase after reaching a historical high. As of the time of writing, the BTC price is reported at $118,570, having slightly risen 0.3% in the past 24 hours, fluctuating within a relatively narrow range at a high level.

[Futures Market: Leverage Enthusiasm Fades, May Indicate a Healthy Bull Run] CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets shared the latest on-chain analysis on their QuickTake platform, indicating a significant shift in Bitcoin futures market activity.

(Bitcoin Futures Trading Volume Bubble Chart | Source: CryptoQuant) Analysts indicate that when the BTC price rose in the range of $70,000 to $90,000, the futures market was accompanied by significant speculative pressure and leverage accumulation (shown as red clusters on the trading volume bubble chart). This "heating or even overheating" phase usually leads to a price pullback or consolidation, as high leverage positions are forced to close. However, the current data presents a different picture. Although the BTC price is still close to historical highs, activity in the futures market has shifted to a "neutral" or even "cooling" phase (shown in gray and green on the bubble chart). ShayanMarkets believes that this cooling phenomenon indicates that traders are actively reducing risk—while speculative activities weaken, spot demand supports the price. He emphasized in his analysis:

With BTC maintaining above $100,000, the leverage reset marks a healthier market condition, with demand shifting towards organic buying rather than high-risk speculation. Analysts added that if this speculative pressure continues to ease, it may lay the groundwork for a new significant rise in BTC and potentially help it break through the previous historical high of $123,000.

[On-chain Dynamics: Ten-Year Whale Starts Cashing Out] At the same time, an analysis by another contributor from CryptoQuant, CoinCare, revealed the selling activities of long-term Bitcoin holders (often referred to as "Whales"), whose holding time has exceeded ten years.

(Bitcoin Market Capitalization Realized | Source: CryptoQuant) CoinCare points out that some whale addresses that date back as far as 2013 have recently started to liquidate part of their holdings. This behavior coincides with the timeline when Bitcoin skyrocketed from under $100 to around $1,000 (an increase of over 117,900%), suggesting that early participants may be cashing in on returns exceeding a thousand times. It is not uncommon for these early investors to take profits at high price levels, and it does not necessarily indicate a shift in long-term market sentiment. CoinCare analysis suggests:

Whale activities have always influenced short-term fluctuations, but they also promote the redistribution of positions in the market, providing entry opportunities for new participants.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, presenting an apparently contradictory yet profound on-chain picture: on one hand, the waning enthusiasm for leverage in the futures market points to a more sustainable bull run foundation, building strength for a potential breakout; on the other hand, the profit-taking by some "ancient" whales is normal, but it may still bring short-term selling pressure. Investors need to closely follow futures funding rates, spot ETF inflows, and key whale wallet movements, while also paying attention to the breakout situation in the critical resistance area of $120,000 to $123,000. The improvement in market health supports a mid-term optimistic outlook, but the volatile market may still persist.