Analysis of the New Round of Bitcoin Price Surge: Driven by Seasonal Patterns and Debt Expansion Factors

According to the Matrixport weekly report, after reviewing the historical patterns of the Ethereum funding rates and the volume of open futures contracts, it was found that despite the continuous positive news for Ethereum, its funding rate only rose to 15%, failing to fully reflect the market heat.

The report believes that Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after breaking through the target price of $116,000 in July, which is basically consistent with previous judgments, and emphasizes that this round of increase lacks the support of retail sentiment and futures speculation.

As volatility declines and consolidation becomes evident, along with the historical pattern that August and September are typically weaker months for the year, coupled with the recent weakening of interest rate cut expectations following the FOMC meeting and a lack of new policy catalysts in the short term, the market may turn cautious and enter a consolidation period of one to two months.

The report states that the seasonal model for Bitcoin it has constructed has been highly consistent with market trends over the past five months. Especially after underperforming in February, the model's fit significantly improved from March, with the predicted increase of 9.1% in July almost aligning with the actual increase of 9.8%.

The report points out that mainly influenced by the market's expectations of Trump's implementation of crypto-friendly policies, Bitcoin broke the trend of a strong finish in the fourth quarter followed by a January pullback in 2025. At the same time, as Washington enters the summer recess, the market focus will temporarily shift, and history shows that fiscal uncertainty is often the key driver behind the rise of such hard assets.

The report ultimately reveals that although the "U.S. Crypto Week" and institutional accumulation have garnered much attention, the true core catalyst driving this round of Bitcoin's rise is the $5 trillion debt ceiling expansion plan proposed by Trump. After the plan was approved, the balance of U.S. Treasury debt surged, and Bitcoin's breakout occurred right after this policy was implemented.

In summary, the current market dynamics of Bitcoin are closely intertwined with the macro environment. Whether it is the validation of seasonal models or the emergence of the core catalyst of debt ceiling expansion plans, both reveal the deeper logic behind the price trends of Bitcoin.

Although there may be a consolidation phase in the short term due to a lack of new catalysts, macro factors such as fiscal uncertainty will still be key to influencing its performance in the long term. Understanding these driving factors is crucial for grasping the pulse of the market.

#比特币 # market trend #debt ceiling