As of today, the #kripto# market has once again fallen under the shadow of global politics. The president of #ABD# announced new customs duties of up to 15% on China, Turkey, and several other countries. This decision has led to a significant wave of selling not only in traditional exchanges but also in the risky asset class of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the threat of nuclear war has once again come to the table.

For the last three weeks, the resilient #Trump# Ethereum has been pulled down to $3,570. Daily declines were approximately 3% and 2.5% respectively.

The fact that customs duties do not directly target crypto should not be misleading. Such macro steps strengthening the dollar and reducing risk appetite indirectly suppress cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Technical and Structural Outlook

A critical technical break has occurred in Bitcoin. The horizontal consolidation around the 116,000 level, which has been ongoing for about 16 days, has been broken downwards. In technical analysis, the "Head & Shoulders" formation has been completed, and a test of the $110,000 level is expected.

If this support is broken, the market may start to price below $100,000 in the short term. However, this scenario could also create a "capitulation" environment, paving the way for a strong reversal movement afterwards.

Two scenarios are coming to the forefront for Bitcoin in the remaining year:

- In a negative scenario: If the dollar continues to strengthen, interest rates do not decrease, and the aversion to global risk increases, BTC could be pulled down to the 90,000 - 100,000 range if the FED - Trump conflict continues.

- In a positive scenario: The Fed's rate cut in the last quarter of the year, the resumption of institutional inflows into ETFs, and a decrease in political tensions could lead #BTC to return to the 130,000 – 140,000 range.

Today's break is a warning for short-term investors. However, there is no structural deterioration from a medium and long-term perspective.

Structural Resilience and Institutional Interest in Ethereum

#Ethereum performed stronger than Bitcoin in July. There are two main reasons behind this: Increasing institutional inflows into spot ETH ETFs and the stability provided by the staking mechanism.

The drop experienced today did not create a technical breakdown for Ethereum. It is still trading above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. As long as it does not drop below the $3,550 level, the current trend is maintained.

The high premiums for put options on Ethereum in the options market indicate that investors are expecting more volatility in the short term. However, this could also be a sign of a search for higher returns.

In the short term, 4,000 dollars continues to be a psychological and technical resistance. As long as this level is not surpassed, no new momentum should be expected.

Predictions for ETH by the end of the year:

- Neutral scenario: ETH may fluctuate between 3,200 and 4,200 throughout the year.
- Bull scenario: The ETF effect and staking supply pressure could see the level of 5,000 dollars.
- Bear scenario: BTC could fall below 90,000 and with the loss of market confidence, ETH might return to the 2,800 – 3,000 range.

Market Perception and Investor Sentiment

Today's developments have undermined investor psychology in the short term. However, this situation is normal in markets with high volatility like crypto. The important thing is this: The fundamental narrative has not been disrupted. ETF inflows continue, regulatory clarity is increasing, and institutional capital is still in the market.

Therefore:

- Short-term declines should not create excessive panic.
- Support levels should be monitored carefully.
- Since the macro news flow has become more decisive, positions should not be taken solely based on technical analysis.

Bitcoin is technically fragile, while Ethereum is structurally more resilient. However, the market direction will be shaped by Trump's aggressive trade policies and the Fed's subsequent actions. In the coming weeks, especially the Jackson Hole meeting and inflation data will determine the direction of the crypto market. Crypto is a long-term game. Today's pullbacks could be tomorrow's opportunities. But only for those who act with patience and data.