ok, a fresh thought for today

people love to fight about “high-risk max gain” vs “safety first”. meanwhile 90% of the stack disappears because the *structure* of the strategy is broken, not because the coin or the market is evil

picture a fair coin: heads → +100%, tails → –60%. looks like a money printer, but:

> shove the whole bankroll on every flip and you hit zero after a short cold streak. the true expectation is -10.6% per attempt once you compound wins and losses
> bet a flat 100$ each flip and you still go broke before the lucky run arrives. the exponential edge never shows up

lesson: goal #1 is “don’t die before the run”. extreme positions kill you faster than bad calls

kelly math says the sweet spot for that coin is ~ ⅓ of the bankroll per flip, enough to let compounded gains work, small enough to survive a string of tails

translate that to crypto:
• memes→ way under 30% of equity. the variance alone will bury you
• stables farming → can be close to 100%. risk low, yield steady
• perp trading → find your own kelly slice, usually 5-15% per trade, so ten losses in a row don’t wipe you

rules of thumb:

1. no all-in unless you have an *objective* edge > 60%
2. no micro-dosing that flattens returns and kills the exponent
3. scale position size with account size, otherwise the “optimal” bet stops being optimal the moment you win or lose

risk is managed, not prayed over. pick a percentage that lets you sleep and stick to it. everything else is detail