Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, when will the alts market arrive?

Bitcoin recently broke through $123,000, setting a new historical high. However, the altcoin market has yet to show a significant response. By reviewing the past three Bitcoin breakout trends, we may find some patterns to predict the future movements of the altcoin market.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a price discovery phase, but the alts' momentum is stagnant, and large-cap coins have not yet started. So, what will happen when the market breaks through?

Since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin breaks through, it has triggered a collective rebound of alts:

• 30,000 to 44,000 US dollars
• $45,000 to $71,000
• $71,000 to $105,000 (after the U.S. election)

Every time there is a breakout, alts will experience an explosive period of 3-5 weeks. Afterwards, Bitcoin enters consolidation, its dominant position recovers, and the gains of alts are retraced.

Now, we seem to be in a similar plot:

Bitcoin has broken through the resistance level of $107,000, currently rising to $123,000, and may challenge the $150,000 mark.

If historical patterns hold, we may currently be at the starting point of a new round of alts season.

But be cautious: this is not a half-year long altcoin carnival, but a short-term sprint.

Bitcoin's dominance has not broken through key levels, so this is not a full altcoin season.

If Bitcoin's dominance does not rise further, alts will still increase. This is exactly what happened in the last two cycles.

The trends of the three major mainstream coins, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, have shown significant divergence.

Ethereum significantly lagged behind Bitcoin at the end of 2023, but each subsequent pullback bottom has been gradually rising.

Solana initially led strongly, but now its momentum is close to stagnation.

XRP initially performed weakly, but experienced explosive growth after last year's US elections.

Signs of capital rotation have become apparent.

A notable phenomenon currently is that payment tokens have taken the lead:

XRP, XLM, HBAR, IOTA, ALGO, XDC

The "bank token" that complies with the ISO20022 standard is gaining funding favor first.

The large-cap coins that have not yet launched will be the focus of attention:

• BNB: The BTC exchange rate is approaching historical cycle lows.
• LINK: Continues to bleed but the fundamentals remain strong
• ADA: Forming a long-term double bottom pattern
• TRX: Ready to take off
• DOGE: Always able to explode during Bitcoin breakout cycles.

These are the core rotation targets.

If Solana starts to gain funding favor, its ecosystem tokens are worth paying attention to:

BONK has surged by 89%, and PENGU has become the most popular meme coin in the crypto social media space.

Layer 1 imitation relay: Sui, Aptos, AVAX (has not been launched since November 2023)

TAO and PEPE performed brilliantly in 2023:

• TAO: Increased 14 times in 5 months
• PEPE: 6.6 times increase in BTC within 3 months

They show a strong narrative when Bitcoin rises, and if a new "shiny narrative" emerges, decisive action is required.

Current Trading Plan

• Focus on blue-chip tokens
• Looking for coins that have not yet launched
• Switch to a strong narrative when leading projects are launched.
• Temporarily avoid small-cap coins, not worth the risk.

Capital rotation is the key, do not blindly chase the rise.

Alts may迎来 a strong cycle of 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: take the profit and don't be greedy.

If Bitcoin surges to $150,000, the top 20 coins by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets could see a huge rebound.

Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon positions that are stagnant in growth.

Maintain a bullish mindset and avoid blind euphoria. Keep an eye on Bitcoin's dominance and monitor the activity of BTC trading pairs.

Although it is not the frenzied cycles of 2017 or 2021, it is still a solid and reliable window period. Small-cap coins will eventually rotate, but we need to wait for the right opportunity.