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An upcoming important economic policy speech has sparked significant attention in global markets. U.S. President Trump will be conducting a live interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" program at 8 PM tonight, where he is expected to express his views on the current state of the U.S. economy, employment situation, monetary policy, and trade tariffs, among other highly watched issues.
This interview coincides with the release of key economic data, and the global trade situation is also tense. Analysts generally believe that Trump's remarks may trigger fluctuations in the financial markets, and investors need to remain vigilant.
There are several key points to follow: first, in terms of the job market, Trump recently dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics due to dissatisfaction with the July employment data, and he may further question the accuracy of official data during the interview. Second, regarding trade policy, Trump may elaborate on his stance towards India, as he threatened to impose tariffs on India the day before the interview in response to its purchase of Russian oil.
In addition, as the market warms to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, Trump may take this opportunity to pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate its pace of rate cuts. At the same time, the market is also anticipating his response to Goldman Sachs' prediction, which states that tariffs will lead to a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1.1% in the fourth quarter.
From a market impact perspective, Trump's speech may have multiple effects. If he signals more trade protectionism, it could lead to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, while emerging market currencies may face pressure. If he emphasizes expectations for interest rate cuts, it could continue to boost U.S. stocks.
It is noteworthy that the recent correlation between Bitcoin prices and the US stock market has become strong, which means that the policy uncertainty brought about by Trump's speeches may also affect the cryptocurrency market. Investors should be prepared for potential market volatility, especially in risk asset areas such as foreign exchange, the stock market, and cryptocurrencies.