## Bitcoin Market Depth Analysis: Key Support and Market Sentiment Evolution Amid Intensified Fluctuation

(As of August 5, 2025)

### 1 💹 Price Fluctuation and Key Levels
- **Severe Fluctuation Range**: Bitcoin has recently fluctuated sharply between **$111,900–$115,000**. After briefly breaking through $115,000 on August 4, it quickly fell back to $114,500, triggering **$125 million in leveraged position liquidations within 1 hour**. On August 2, it even dipped below $113,000 to $111,903, marking a two-week low.
- **Key Support and Resistance**：
- **Strong support zone**: $110,000–$112,000 (50-day EMA support + institutional buyer concentration zone);
- **Bullish Support Line**: There are **111,000 BTC buy orders** at $107,160, forming a technical buffer;
- **Breakthrough threshold**: Must stabilize at $117,400 (88,000 BTC resistance) and break through the previous high of $119,504 to challenge the historical peak.

### 2 📉 Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
- **Panic sentiment rises**: The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen below **50** for the first time in a month (currently reported at 45), indicating that the market has entered the "panic" zone. The main reasons for the decline in investor confidence include:
- **ETF Capital Withdrawal**: On August 1, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was **$810 million**, reaching a six-month high; Ethereum ETFs also ended their consecutive inflow, with an outflow of $150 million;
- **Leverage Liquidation Wave**: At the beginning of August, the total network liquidation exceeded **$754 million**, with long positions accounting for 93%, reflecting the excessive optimistic positions being cleared.
- **Institutional long positions remain steadfast**: Despite intensified short-term selling pressure, the OTC platform's position has increased against the trend to **500,000 BTC** (a 245% increase compared to 2021), indicating that large funds are accumulating on dips.

### 3 🧮 Technical Structure and On-Chain Signal Divergence
- **Bullish Technical Pattern**: The weekly chart forms a **Head and Shoulders Inverse pattern**, with a theoretical target price pointing to $172,000. If the $110,000 neckline is held, the mid-term upward channel remains valid.
- **Whale Movement Warning Risk**：
- On August 1st, **40,000 BTC losses transferred to the exchange** in a single day, and the whale ratio on the exchange reached a yearly high, indicating that selling pressure may continue;
- **"Ancient Wallet" Awakens**: In 2010, miner address transferred **250 BTC (approximately $30 million)**, similar historical events are often accompanied by Depth corrections.

The table below summarizes the distribution of key support and resistance levels:

| **Price Level** | **Nature** | **Importance** | **Formation Reasons** |
|-------------|---------|-----------|------------|
| **$107,160** | strong support | ★★★★☆ | 111,000 BTC buy orders |
| **$110,000-$112,000** | support zone | ★★★★★ | 50-day EMA + psychological level |
| **$117,400** | Resistance Level | ★★★☆☆ | 88,000 BTC Sell Orders |
| **$119,504** | strong resistance | ★★★★☆ | historical high region |

### 4 🌐 Macro Pressure and Policy Variables
- **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy**: The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to **70%** (CME FedWatch). If implemented, it may alleviate liquidity pressure, but the short-term hawkish stance (maintaining rates at 4.25-4.50%) suppresses risk appetite.
- **Geopolitical conflict escalates**: The US has **raised tariffs to 35%** on countries like Canada, combined with weak employment data (over 90% downward revision of new jobs for May-June), raising concerns about recession and accelerating the risk of capital flight from risk assets.

### 5 🔮 August Seasonal Patterns and Outlook
- **The Historical Shadow of "Cursed Month"**: Over the past decade, the average return of Bitcoin in August was only **1.61%**, with a median decline of **-7.49%**, recording positive returns in only four years.
- **Special Nature of the Year of Reduction**: In the year following the halving (2013/2017/2021), Bitcoin saw significant increases in August (**30%/65%/14%**), and whether this can be replicated in the current year has become a focal point.

The table below compares the performance of Bitcoin in August over the years:

| **Year** | **August Fluctuation** | **Is it Half-Year Reduction** | **Market Background** |
|---------|--------------|----------------|------------|
| **2013** | +30% | Yes | Bull Market After Halving |
| **2017** | +65% | Yes | Bull Market After Halving |
| **2021** | +14% | Yes | Post-halving bull market |
| **Other Years** | Median -7.49% | No | Generally Weak |

> **Long and Short Game Strategy**:
> - **Short-term (1-2 weeks)**: If it falls below $110,000, it may drop to $106,000–$100,000 (Fib retracement level + psychological support);
> - **Mid-term (end of August)**: Michaël van de Poppe and others suggest **accumulating chips on dips**, expecting a new round of peak market activity to start by the end of the month;
> - **Gray Rhino Risk**: Robert Kiyosaki warns that the 'August Curse' may cause prices to drop below $90,000, but lacks data support.

### 💎 Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a **high fluctuation and directional decision window**: potential bullish patterns on the technical front are countered by on-chain whale selling pressure, while macro policies and seasonal trends further amplify the divergence. The short-term support at $110,000–$112,000 has become a watershed for bulls and bears.